Question

Zach Liscow finds that it is plausible that 2.25% of northern voters changed their votes from Democrat to Republican from 1860 to 1864 for economic reasons. What rational for this shift does he provide?

Answer 1

Specifically, using voting patterns as representations of the Northern population's preferences. The hypothesis that the North had economic motivations for keeping the South in the Union yields a specific prediction: counties with relatively large amounts of these manufacturing interests should shift their votes from Democrats to Republicans between 1860 and 1864.

The reason is the following: the best way to keep the South in the Union before the Civil War was to vote for the Democrats, reducing the likelihood of secession by voting for the party more accommodating to Southern slavery interests.

The best way to keep the South in the Union during the war was to vote for the Republicans. Who was more likely to pursue the war until victory was achieved.

This shift toward the Republicans associated with manufacturing together amounts to 2.25% of voters in Northern states. That is, taking the results literally suggests that 2.25% of Northern voters shifted their votes to the Republicans out of a desire to protect their manufacturing interests by keeping the South in the Union. The remainder of the paper proceeds as follows.

Scholars have argued that an approximately 2.25 percentage point shift in voting for Republicans between 1860 and 1864 is attributable to the economic interests of manufacturing, a factor pivotal in states accounting for over a quarter of electoral votes.

Causes other than a desire to keep the South in the Union seem unable to explain this shift. Suggesting that a concern for keeping the South as part of the Union motivated this 2.25% of voters.

If 2.25% of voters were on the margin between voting for the Democrats and Republicans and changed their votes to keep the South in the Union. Then the actual fraction of the population with these economic interests was likely much larger since many with this interest either kept voting Republican or were motivated enough by other concerns to keep voting Democratic.