Discuss market efficiency in responding to potential
earnings management?
- The term market efficiency is used to explain the
relationship between information and share prices in
the capital market.
- Earlier EMH was known as Random Walk
Theory
- Stock prices fully reflect all available information
instantaneously and accurately.
- Price of a share approximates to intrinsic value, no under
or overvalued shares
- Share price movements represent a random walk than an
orderly movement.
- Different forms of market efficiency are:
- Weak Form
- The theory that security prices reflect all market
data, referring to all past price and volume trading
information.
- Weak form of EMH is popularly known as Random Walk Hypothesis.
This is a direct repudiation of technical Analysis.
- Implication:
- If Weak Form efficient, historical trading data will
already be reflected (discounted) in current prices and should be
of no value in predicting future price changes.
- Semi-Strong Form
- Security prices reflect all publicly available
information.
- Publicly available information includes: Historical price and
volume information; Published accounting statements and annual
reports
- Assumes the weak-form set of information as well as all
public information pertinent to the security such as: Earnings;
Dividends; Corporate investments; Management changes
- Implication:
- If semi-strong efficient, it is futile to analyse public
information such as earnings projections and financial statements
in an attempt to identify underpriced or overpriced
securities.
- Strong Form
- The theory that stock prices fully reflect all
information, which includes both public and private
information.
- Implications:
- Stock prices are fairly priced.
- It is not possible to use public information to identify
over-priced or underpriced stocks
- It is not possible to use insider information to identify
over-priced or underpriced stocks