Question 2: Problem solving (11 Marks) Kenneth Brown is the principal owner of Brown Oil, Inc....

Question 2: Problem solving

	Outcomes
Alternative Decisions	O₁: Favorable Market	O₂: Moderate Market	O₃: Unfavorable Market
Sub 100	$ 300000	$ 150000	$ -200000
Sub 200	$ 350000	$ 200000	$ 200000
Oil J	$ 250000	$ 100000	$ -100000
Texan	$ 75000	$ 50000	$ 0
Probabilities	0.2	0.5	0.3

For example, if Ken purchases a Sub 100 and if there is a favorable market, he will realize a profit of $300,000. On the other hand, if the market is unfavorable, Ken will suffer a loss of $200,000. But Ken has always been a very pessimistic decision maker.

If information about the probability of each outcome becomes available to Ken then:

Questions:

4. Find the best decision using the adequate technique.

5. How much Ken should pay to know the perfect information about the market condition?

6. Is it reasonable for Ken to purchase the perfect information about the market outcomes for $20,000? Explain why. (1 Mark)

Solutions

Expert Solution

ekkarill92 answered 1 year ago

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