Real GDP and Potential GDP
- When the economy is at full employment, real GDP equals
potential GDP; so actual real GDP is determined by the same factors
that determine potential GDP.
- Real GDP can exceed potential GDP only temporarily as it
approaches and then recedes from a business cycle peak. So
potential GDP is the sustainable upper limit of production.
- Real GDP fluctuates around potential GDP, which means that on
the average over the business cycle, real GDP equals potential
GDP.
Actual Unemployment Rate and Natural Unemployment Rate
- The natural rate of unemployment is the unemployment rate at
full employment.
- When the economy is at full employment, real GDP is equal to
potential real GDP. By contrast, when the economy is below full
employment, the unemployment rate is greater than the natural
unemployment rate and real GDP is less than potential. Finally,
when the economy is above full employment, then the unemployment
rate is less than the natural unemployment rate and real GDP is
greater than potential.
- When the actual unemployment rate is higher than the natural
unemployment rate, the inflation rate decreases; when the actual
unemployment rate is lower than the natural unemployment rate, the
inflation rate increases.