Question

in 400 words discuss the different types of polling used to gauge public opinion in the United States? Do you believe polling is effective? Why or why not? Please cite a specific example using one outside resource where polling was not effective in the last ten years.

Answer 1

In the USA the opinion polls are used in any type of debate or also for elections. They use surveys for opinion polls. They use question answer surveys, percentage polls, or exact numbers for the opinion polls of the citizens. There are various other methods for opinion polls, i.e., tracking polls, it means that the responses of the people are obtained in consecutive periods, such as daily and finally the results are calculated by using the moving average for the responses which are gathered. Benchmark polls include the polls taken in campaigns, taken before the candidate announces their share of the bid for their office. Bushfire polls are taken during the time span between the benchmark poll and the tracking poll. It is taken by the campaign and is determined by the competitiveness and the race of how much amount of money the campaign should spend.
The opinion polls are effective as it gives an estimate of what people of the country thinks, or what they want. The randomness of the surveys provide more accuracy to the opinions and the numbers. It is easier for determining a majority poll without any election. It is practiced while keeping all the facts in mind.
The election of Britain and Israel of 2015 have been one of the most high profile misses for the opinion polls. In France all the pollers gave their polls for Emmanuel Macron who is a substantial lead in 2017 runoff. According to Harry Enten of CNN, one of the polls were not conducted in the final weeks of the campaign which predicted his landslide with 32 point margin of victory. The gap at points between two week polling average and actual results of 2017.
In the French election Enten noted that the poll was greater than it had been in the previous years. All the final polls of 2007 in British elections showed that Prime Minister Theresa May lost the parliamentary majority. And at last in November, the polls overstated the votes of the first round winner of Chile's presidential contest.
These results represent the weakness of the experts across the industry who are working to address. It showed that the experts and their public opinion were not so expertised, that it failed and showed the wrong poll against the one who finally won the elections. The opinion polls are beneficiary for taking an opinion of the masses but tampering with it can cause the situations to be worse.