In: Accounting
You are a manager at Percolated Fiber, which is considering expanding its operations in synthetic fiber manufacturing. Your boss comes into your office, drops a consultant's report on your desk, and complains, "We owe these consultants $ 1.9 million for this report, and I am not sure their analysis makes sense. Before we spend the $ 16 million on new equipment needed for this project, look it over and give me your opinion." You open the report and find the following estimates (in millions of dollars):
Earnings Forecast ($ million) |
1 |
2 |
. . . |
9 |
10 |
Sales revenue |
26.00026.000 |
26.00026.000 |
26.00026.000 |
26.00026.000 |
|
minus−Cost of goods sold |
15.60015.600 |
15.60015.600 |
15.60015.600 |
15.60015.600 |
|
equals=Gross profit |
10.40010.400 |
10.40010.400 |
10.40010.400 |
10.40010.400 |
|
minus−Selling, general, and administrative expenses |
1.2801.280 |
1.2801.280 |
1.2801.280 |
1.2801.280 |
|
minus−Depreciation |
1.6001.600 |
1.6001.600 |
1.6001.600 |
1.6001.600 |
|
equals Net operating income |
7.5207.520 |
7.5207.520 |
7.5207.520 |
7.5207.520 |
|
minus Income tax |
2.6322.632 |
2.6322.632 |
2.6322.632 |
2.6322.632 |
|
equals Net unlevered income |
4.8884.888 |
4.8884.888 |
4.8884.888 |
All of the estimates in the report seem correct. You note that the consultants used straight-line depreciation for the new equipment that will be purchased today (year 0), which is what the accounting department recommended. The report concludes that because the project will increase earnings by $ 4.888 million per year for ten years, the project is worth $ 48.88 million. You think back to your halcyon days in finance class and realize there is more work to be done!
First, you note that the consultants have not factored in the fact that the project will require $ 15 million in working capital upfront (year 0), which will be fully recovered in year 10. Next, you see they have attributed $ 1.28 million of selling, general and administrative expenses to the project, but you know that $ 0.64 million of this amount is overhead that will be incurred even if the project is not accepted. Finally, you know that accounting earnings are not the right thing to focus on!
a. Given the available information, what are the free cash flows in years 0 through 10 that should be used to evaluate the proposed project?
b. If the cost of capital for this project is 9%, what is your estimate of the value of the new project?
SOLUTION:
EVERY FIGURE IN MILLION DOLLORS
COST OF NEW EQUIPMENT=16
INITIAL WORKING CAPITAL REQUIRED=1.9
SALES FOR EACH YEAR =26
COST OF GOODS SOLD=15.6
GROSS PROFIT=26-15.6
GROSS PROFIT=10.4
SELLING, GENERAL AND ADMINISTATIVE EXPENCE=0.64 (IT IS GIVEN THAT 0.64 WILL BE INCURRED EVEN IF PROJECT IS NOT TAKEN SO WHEN WE CALCULATE CASH FLOWS OF PROJECTS WE ONLY INCLUDE INCREMENTAL CASH FLOWS I.E., THE CASH FLOWS THAT IS HAPPENNING ONLY IF PROJECT IS UNDERTAKEN)
DEPRECIATION=1.6
NET OPERATING INCOME=10.4-0.64-1.6 =8.16
INCOME TAX = 2.632
NET INCOME=8.16-2.632
=5.528
CASH FLOW = NET INCOME+DEPRECIATION-CHANGE IN NET WORKING CAPITAL
a)
CASH FLOW IN YEAR 0= -16-1.9 = -17.9(NEGATIVE SIGN INDICATES CASH OUTFLOW)
ADDED 1.9 BECAUSE THIS WORKING CAPITAL IS NEEDED INITIALLY
CASH FLOW IN YEAR 1TO 9 = 5.28 + 1.6 = $ 6.88
CASH FLOW IN YEAR 10 = 5.28 + 1.6 + 1.9 = 8.78 ( 1.9 IS NET WORKING CAPITAL RETURNED)
b)
WE WILL CALCULATE VALUE OF PROJECT USING NPV
NPV IS SUM OF PRESENT VALUE OF ALL CASH FLOWS
PRESENT VALUE = CASH FLOW /(1+r)n , WHERE r IS REQUIRED RETURN AND n IS NUMBER OF YEARS
r IS COST OF CAPITAL i.e., 9%
NPV =CF0 +CF1/(1+r)1+CF2/(1+r)2 + ....................+ CF9/(1+r)9 + CF10/(1+r)10
NPV = - 17.9 + 6.88/(1.09)1+6.88(1.09)2+....................+6.88/(1.09)9 + 8.78(1.09)10
NPV = 27.0570
THE VALUE OF PROJECT IS 27.0570 MILLION DOLLORS .
PLEASE VOTEUP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!