Question

The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks 

Week Of	Pints Used
August 31	360
September 7	370
September 14	410
September 21	381
September 28	366
October 5	378

 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average = _______  pints .

 b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.15, 0.30, and 0.55, using 0.55 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = _______ points.  (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate order the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) 

 c) lf the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and α = 0.20, using exponential smoothing develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week of October 12 .

Week Of	Pints Used	Forecast for this Date
August 31	360	360
September 7	370	360.00
September 14	410	362.00
September 21	381	◻
September 28	366	◻
October 5	378	◻
October 12	-	◻

Answer 1

a) Using a 3-week moving average method, the forecast would be

F(October12) = {Actual(October5) + Actual(September28) + Actual(September21)}/3

= (378 + 366 + 381)/3

= 375

b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average method, the forecast would be:

F(October 12) = 0.55*Actual(October 5) + 0.30*Actual(September 28) + 0.15*Actual(September 21)

= 0.55*378 + 0.3*366 + 0.15*381

= 374.85

c) Using the exponential smoothing method, the forecast would be:

F(September 21) = 0.2*410 + 0.8*362

= 371.6

F(September 28) = 0.2*381 + 0.8*371.6

= 373.48

F(October 5) = 0.2*366 + 0.8*373.48

= 371.98

F(October 12) = 0.2*378 + 0.8*371.98

= 373.18