Question

Discuss the 2 common expert judgement techniques that are applicable not only for risk identification, but also for forecasting and decision making.

Answer 1

Expert Judgement is when an estimate is made based on the judgement of one or more experts against analogus / parametric / three point estimates etc. which are all based on simple or complex mathematical calculations.

Delphi Method or Technique is an established expert judgement method in which two or more experts are involved. It is somewhat like a debate, but the communication is more structured. First, all experts will provide their judgements then a moderator evaluates the inputs and gives feedback. Based on the feedback and other experts' answers, each expert is expected to revise their answer. Through a sequence of similar operations, finally a judgement is made.

Historical Data is a uselul expert judgement method which can be invaluable when similar projects are involved. Similar projects will have similar processes, inputs and outputs. Data available from the past can be used to forecast the future by adding in the current variations.

Brainstroming is also an expert judgement technique in which a group of experts brings up many solutions for discussion. After discussing and analysing the many solutions available, a judgement is made.