Question

discuss teo common expert judgement techniques that are applicable not only for risk identification but also for forecasting and decision making.

Answer 1

The delphi technique is the most used tool in securing Expert Judgment. Under this method the group's estimates are returned to the individual experts for review and a second round of forecasts is received from the experts. With each round the degree of consensus improves. The use of the delphi technique helps to reduce biased decisions

Other tools can be used, as:

Interviews. This tool is best used when knowledgeable, experienced people are available at an affordable cost and specific information is needed. Interview can be on a one-to-one or a many-to-one basis wherein conducted by asking a series of questions that will increase your knowledge of the project or a particular project activity.

Brainstorming. It's the kind of expert judgment tool is usually best use when input from multiple experts is needed or when experienced people aren't available. Brainstorming works by getting a group to focus on a problem and then coming up with as many solutions as possible. Once the session has resulted in a number of solutions, the results can be analyzed.

Historical data. Is best used when records are accurate and both projects are similar. Since a variety of documentations in project management matters most, so, it is very nice to have historical record data in every expert judgment to ensure that you are in line with what really it should be. Historical data uses the knowledge gained on a similar past project.