In: Economics
This is the liquidity effect question you’ve all been waiting for. You must use graphs in parts (a) and (b) to receive full credit.
(a) Assume that prices are perfectly flexible in a closed economy. Demonstrate the impact of an increase in the money supply on the equilibrium expected real rate of interest, the price level, private saving, private investment, and real balances using the credit and money markets.
(b) Assume that the price level is fixed in the short run. Describe the impact of an increase in the money supply on the expected real rate of interest.
(c) Describe the liquidity effect and the key assumptions that must be made for the liquidity effect to be observed.
(d) Assume there is a liquidity effect. Describe the impact on velocity. Is there a liquidity trap? Explain.
A) The impact of an increase in the money supply on the equilibrium expected real rate of interest, the price level, private saving, private investment, and real balances using the credit and money markets.
Who controls the quantity of money that circulates in an economy, the money supply. Central banks determine the money supply. ♦ In the US, the central bank is the Federal Reserve System. ♦ The Federal Reserve System directly regulates the quantity of currency in circulation, also as banking industry reserves. ♦ It indirectly controls the quantity of checking deposits issued by private banks.
By increasing the amount of
money in the economy, the central bank encourages private
consumption. Increasing the cash supply also decreases the rate of
interest, which inspires lending and investment. The increase in
consumption and investment results in a better aggregate demand. An
increase in supply, all other things unchanged, will cause the
equilibrium price to fall; quantity demanded will increase. A
decrease in supply will cause the equilibrium price to rise;
quantity demanded will decrease. An increase within the funds means
extra money is out there for borrowing within the economy. ... In
the short run, higher rates of consumption and lending and
borrowing can be correlated with an increase in the total output of
an economy and spending and, presumably, a country's
GDP.
Money supply
important
Because money is employed
in virtually all economic transactions, it's a strong effect on
economic activity. An increase within the supply of cash works both
through lowering interest rates, which spurs investment, and thru
putting extra money within the hands of consumers, making them feel
wealthier, and thus stimulating spending. Business firms respond to
increased sales by ordering more raw materials and increasing
production. The spread of commercial activity increases the demand
for labor and raises the demand for capital goods. In a buoyant
economy, stock exchange prices rise and firms issue equity and
debt. If the cash supply continues to expand, prices begin to rise,
especially if output growth reaches capacity limits. As the public
begins to expect inflation, lenders enforce higher interest rates
to offset an expected decline in purchasing power over the lifetime
of their loans.
Ways to increase
the money supply
1. Print more money –
usually, this is done by the Central Bank, though in some countries
governments can dictate the money supply. For example in Zimbabwe
2000s – the govt printed extra money to pay wages.
2. Reducing interest rates.
Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing. This makes
investment relatively more profitable, then encourages economic
activity. Consumers also will see cheaper mortgage payments
resulting in higher income . Read more – effect of cutting interest
rates
3. Quantitative easing The
Central Bank can also electronically create money. Under a policy
of quantitative easing, they plan to increase their bank reserves
‘effectively create money out of thin air’. The created money are
often wont to buy assets; the thought is to extend cash reserves of
banks.
4. Reduce the reserve ratio
for lending. The reserve ratio is the percentage of deposits that
bank keeps in cash reserves. If the reserve ratio is reduced, then
the bank will lend more and thanks to the cash multiplier, we'll
see an increase in bank lending. Central Banks can set a minimum
reserve ratio. Reducing this ratio
5. Increase confidence in
the banking system. If banks believe within the economic system ,
then they're going to be more willing to lend. In the credit
crisis, it had been necessary for the govt to ensure bank deposits
and nationalise struggling banks
6. Central Bank buying
government securities. The Central Bank pays investors holding
bonds. If the financial institution buy Government securities (or
corporate bonds) people that were holding the bonds have extra
money to spend. Banks see illiquid assets become liquid. Therefore,
in certain circumstances, this can lead to an increase in the money
supply. However, it depends on whether the bond purchases are
sterilised or ‘unsterilised’. Unsterilised means they create money
to buy bonds.
7. Expansionary fiscal
policy. In a recession, there's often a ‘paradox of thrift’
business and consumers want to extend savings – and this results in
a fall in spending and investment. If the government borrows from
the private sector and spends on public work investment schemes
then this will start a multiplier effect where households gain
wages to spend and encourage private sector investment.
In recent decades
the cash supply has been increasing because:
• Reduction in reserve
ratio by banks – seeking greater profitability
• Creation of new types of
liquid assets which make it easier for banks to lend
• Increased velocity of
circulation. – The number of times cash changes
• Interest rates: money
pays little or no interest, so the interest rate is the opportunity
cost of holding money instead of other assets, like bonds, which
have a higher expected return/interest rate. a better rate of
interest means a better cost of holding money → lower money demand
Prices: the costs of products and services bought in transactions
will influence the willingness to carry money to conduct those
transactions.A higher price level means a greater need for
liquidity to buy the same amount of goods and services → higher
money demand hands.
Investment spending is a
crucial category of real GDP. Not only is it always the foremost
volatile a part of real GDP, but investment spending on physical
capital is additionally a crucial contributor to economic process .
So, if a firm wants to create a replacement factory, where does it
get the funds to create it? Usually, firms borrow that
money.
The marketplace for
loanable funds describes how that borrowing happens. The supply of
loanable funds is predicated on savings. The demand for loanable
funds is predicated on borrowing. The interaction between the
availability of savings and therefore the demand for loans
determines the important rate of interest and the way much is
loaned out.
B) The price level is fixed in the short run
It’s fixed in place and, if it’s
moving, it’s doing so really slowly! When things don’t move or
adjust quickly, economists will often ask them as “sticky.” as an
example , if market prices or wages don’t adjust quickly to changes
within the economy, they are called sticky prices. And when faced
with things like sticky wages and costs , an economy won't produce
its financial condition output.
The short-run aggregate
supply curve (SRAS) lets us capture how all of the firms in an
economy answer price stickiness. When prices are sticky, the SRAS
curve will slope upward. The SRAS curve shows that a better price
index results in more output.
There are two important
things to notice about SRAS. For one, it represents a short-run
relationship between price level and output supplied. Aggregate
supply slopes up within the short-run because a minimum of one
price is inflexible. Second, SRAS also tells us there's a short-run
tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Because higher
inflation results in more output, higher inflation is additionally
related to lower unemployment within the short run.
By the term fixed price, we
mean that price remains constant. They do not change as per demand
and provide conditions within the short run. The reason behind this
is that there are always chances that aggregate demand and supply
do not equalize in an economy. Prices take time to respond to these
conditions.
A single firm might not be
a really" during a position to influence prices because it
could be contributing a very small share to the entire market
output. Therefore, firms might become individual price takers in
the short run (like the case of perfect competition). For these
reasons, within the short-run, prices remain fixed. Prices change
in the long-run.
impact of an increase in
the money supply on the expected real rate of
interest.
All else being equal, a
bigger funds lowers market interest rates, making it less costly
for consumers to borrow. Conversely, smaller money supplies tend to
boost market interest rates, making it pricier for consumers to
require out a loan. The current level of liquid money (supply)
coordinates with the entire demand for liquid money (demand) to
assist determine interest rates. More Money Available, Lower
Interest Rates
In a free enterprise , all prices, even prices for present money,
are coordinated by supply and demand. Some individuals have a
greater demand for present money than their current reserves allow;
most homebuyers don't have $300,000 lying around, for example. To
get more present money, these individuals enter the credit market
and borrow from those that have an more than present money
(savers). Interest rates determine the value of the borrowed
present money.
C) Liquidity
Effect
When the Fed pursues a
decent monetary policy, it takes money out of the system by selling
Treasury securities and raising the reserve requirement at banks.
This raises interest rates because the demand for credit is so high
that lenders price their loans higher to require advantage of the
demand. Tight money and high interest rates tend to slow economic
activity and may cause a recession. During periods of financial
condition companies, terminate employees and consumers crop on
their spending. House prices also decline as fewer people are ready
to afford the boom time prices. So, low liquidity has the other
effect on the economy from high liquidity.
Liquidity effect, in
economics, refers broadly to how increases or decreases within the
availability of cash influence interest rates and consumer
spending, also as investments and price stability. The Federal
Reserve, the main body that controls the availability of money in
the United States, employs mechanisms such as changes in the amount
of money banks keep in reserve and the sale or purchase of Treasury
securities to create liquidity effect.
Liquidity preference theory
may be a model that means that an investor should demand a better
rate of interest or premium on securities with long-term maturities
that carry greater risk because, all other factors being equal,
investors prefer cash or other highly liquid holdings.
According to this theory,
which was developed by John Maynard Keynes in support of his idea
that the demand for liquidity holds speculative power, investments
that are more liquid are easier to cash in for full value. Cash is
usually accepted because the most liquid asset. According to the
liquidity preference theory, interest rates on short-term
securities are lower because investors aren't sacrificing liquidity
for greater time frames than medium or longer-term
securities.
The term “liquidity” is
widely used in the literature, though its understanding varies
significantly. The goal of the first section of the Chapter is,
thus, to provide an unambiguous definition, which could be referred
to throughout the analysis. Firstly, existing notions of liquidity
are reviewed and classified into two main approaches: one focusing
on the characteristics of assets (asset liquidity) and the other
one regarding the subject from the market perspective (market
liquidity). In the second step, the concept of liquidity risk is
introduced and integrated into these approaches; a two-dimensional
notion of liquidity results.
In particular, the main characteristics of investments and investment environments, which may have a significant impact on different aspects of liquidity, are discussed.
The following, third section adds a practical dimension to the discussion. A review of assets with respect to which liquidity problems are especially severe is offered and their characteristics are analyzed. The identification of illiquid assets is also necessary to determine the scope of application of the methods developed later. Finally, the fourth section deals with the economic relevance of liquidity. Its role in the economy is discussed concentrating especially on individual investment decisions.
Liquidity: a requirement for greater liquidity occurs when either the worth of transactions increases or the number of products normally bought in transactions increases.
(d) Liquidity
Trap
A liquidity trap may be a
contradictory economic situation during which interest rates are
very low and savings rates are high, rendering monetary policy
ineffective. First described by economist John Maynard Keynes,
during a liquidity trap, consumers prefer to avoid bonds and keep
their funds in cash savings due to the prevailing belief that
interest rates could soon rise (which would push bond prices down).
Because bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates, many
consumers don't want to carry an asset with a price that's expected
to say no . At an equivalent time, financial institution efforts to
spur economic activity are hampered as they're unable to lower
interest rates further to incentivize investors and
consumers.
• A liquidity trap is when
monetary policy becomes ineffective due to very low interest rates
combined with consumers who prefer to save rather than invest in
higher-yielding bonds or other investments.
• While a liquidity trap is
a function of economic conditions, it is also psychological since
consumers are making a choice to hoard cash instead of choosing
higher-paying investments because of a negative economic
view.
• A liquidity trap isn't
limited to bonds. It also affects other areas of the economy, as
consumers are spending less on products which suggests businesses
are less likely to rent .
• Some ways to get out of a
liquidity trap include raising interest rates, hoping the situation
will regulate itself as prices fall to attractive levels, or
increased government spending.
• One marker of a liquidity
trap is low interest rates. Low interest rates can affect
bondholder behavior, along side other concerns regarding the
present financial state of the state , leading to the selling of
bonds during a way that is harmful to the economy.
Further, additions made to the cash
supply fail to end in price index changes, as consumer behavior
leans toward saving funds in low-risk ways. Since a rise in funds
means extra money is within the economy, it's reasonable that a
number of that cash should flow toward the higher-yield assets like
bonds. But during a liquidity trap it doesn't, it just gets stashed
away in cash accounts as savings.
• Low interest rates alone
do not define a liquidity trap. For things to qualify, there has
got to be a scarcity of bondholders wishing to stay their bonds and
a limited supply of investors looking to get them. Instead, the
investors are prioritizing strict cash savings over bond
purchasing. If investors are still curious about holding or
purchasing bonds sometimes when interest rates are low, even
approaching zero percent, things doesn't qualify as a liquidity
trap.
Description:
Liquidity trap is that the extreme
effect of monetary policy. It is a situation during which the
overall public is ready to carry on to whatever amount of cash is
supplied, at a given rate of interest. They do so because of the
fear of adverse events like deflation, war.
In that case, a monetary
policy carried out through open market operations has no effect on
either the interest rate, or the level of income. In a liquidity
trap, the monetary policy is powerless to affect the rate of
interest .
There is a liquidity trap
at short term zero percent rate of interest . When rate of interest
is zero, public wouldn't want to carry any bond, since money, which
also pays zero percent interest, has the advantage of being usable
in transactions.
Hence, if the interest is
zero, a rise in quantity of cash cannot not induce anyone to shop
for bonds and thereby reduce the interest on bonds below
zero.
The impact on
velocity, Is there a liquidity trap:
A liquidity trap often
occurs after a severe recession. Families and businesses are afraid
to spend regardless of what proportion credit is out there . It's
like a flooded car engine. You've released such a lot gas into the
engine that it crowds out the oxygen. Pumping the gas pedal doesn't
help.
That's what happens in a
liquidity trap. The Fed's gas is credit and therefore the pedal is
lower interest rates. When the Fed pushes the accelerator , it
doesn't rev up the economic engine. Instead, businesses and
families hoard their cash. They don't have the confidence to spend
it, so they do nothing. The economic engine is flooded.
Low-Interest
Rates
For a liquidity trap to
occur, interest rates must near or at zero. If it's been there for
a while, people believe that interest rates have nowhere to go but
up. When that happens, no one wants to own bonds. A bond bought
today that pays low rates won't be as valuable after interest rates
rise. Everyone will want the bonds issued then because it pays a
higher return. The low-rate bond will be worth less in
comparison.
Prices Remain
Low
Consumer prices remain low.
Typically, when the central bank adds to the money supply, it
creates inflation. During normal times, for each 1% increase in the
growth of money, inflation increases by 0.54%.1
In a liquidity trap, it's
more likely there'll be deflation or falling prices. People
postpone buying things because they believe prices are going to be
lower within the future.
Businesses Don't
Spend the Extra Cash
Businesses don't take
advantage of low-interest rates to invest in expansion. Instead,
they use it to buy back shares and artificially boost stock prices.
They don't use it to shop for new capital equipment, they create do
with the old. They might also purchase new companies in mergers and
acquisitions or leveraged buy-outs. These activities boost the
stock exchange but not the economy.
Wage Remain
Stagnant
Companies are also
reluctant to use the extra funds to hire new workers. As a result,
wages remain stagnant. Without rising incomes, families only buy
what they need and save the rest. This further contributes to the
lack of demand.
Lower Interest
Rates Don't Translate to Increased Lending
Banks are supposed to take
the extra money the Fed pumps into the economy and lend it out in
mortgages, small business loans, and credit cards. During a
recession, people aren't confident, so they won't borrow. Banks use
the additional cash to write down down debt or increase their
capital to guard against future debt . They might raise their
lending requirements, as well.
Five things can get
the economy out of a liquidity trap by stimulating
demand.
Raise Interest
Rates
First, the Fed raises
interest rates. An increase in short-term rates encourages people
to invest and save their cash, instead of hoarding it. Higher
long-term rates encourage banks to lend since they'll get a better
return. That increases the velocity of money.
Price Fall
Enough
The economy could get going
again once prices fall to such a coffee point that folks just can't
resist shopping. It can happen with commodity or assets like
stocks. Investors start buying again because they know they will
hold onto the asset long enough to outlast the slump. The future
reward has become greater than the danger.
Expansionary Fiscal
Policy
The government can end a
liquidity trap through expansionary economic policy . That's either
a tax cut or an increase in government spending, or both. That
creates confidence that the nation's leaders will support economic
growth. It also directly creates jobs, reducing unemployment and
the need for hoarding.
Financial
Innovation
Fourth, financial
innovation creates an entirely new market. That makes financial
assets, like stocks, bonds, or derivatives, more attractive than
holding cash.
Global
Rebalancing
If some countries are
experiencing a liquidity trap, et al. aren't , then governments
could end the trap by coordinating global rebalancing. That's when
countries that have too much of one thing trade to those that have
too little.
For example, China and
therefore the eurozone have an excessive amount of cash engaged in
savings. That's a result of consumer spending in the United States
on Chinese exports. China must invest more in the United States to
get that money back into circulation.
A) The impact of an increase in the money supply on the equilibrium expected real rate of interest, the price level, private saving, private investment, and real balances using the credit and money markets.
Who controls the quantity of money that circulates in an economy, the money supply. Central banks determine the money supply. ♦ In the US, the central bank is the Federal Reserve System. ♦ The Federal Reserve System directly regulates the quantity of currency in circulation, also as banking industry reserves. ♦ It indirectly controls the quantity of checking deposits issued by private banks.
By increasing the amount of
money in the economy, the central bank encourages private
consumption. Increasing the cash supply also decreases the rate of
interest, which inspires lending and investment. The increase in
consumption and investment results in a better aggregate demand. An
increase in supply, all other things unchanged, will cause the
equilibrium price to fall; quantity demanded will increase. A
decrease in supply will cause the equilibrium price to rise;
quantity demanded will decrease. An increase within the funds means
extra money is out there for borrowing within the economy. ... In
the short run, higher rates of consumption and lending and
borrowing can be correlated with an increase in the total output of
an economy and spending and, presumably, a country's
GDP.
Money supply
important
Because money is employed
in virtually all economic transactions, it's a strong effect on
economic activity. An increase within the supply of cash works both
through lowering interest rates, which spurs investment, and thru
putting extra money within the hands of consumers, making them feel
wealthier, and thus stimulating spending. Business firms respond to
increased sales by ordering more raw materials and increasing
production. The spread of commercial activity increases the demand
for labor and raises the demand for capital goods. In a buoyant
economy, stock exchange prices rise and firms issue equity and
debt. If the cash supply continues to expand, prices begin to rise,
especially if output growth reaches capacity limits. As the public
begins to expect inflation, lenders enforce higher interest rates
to offset an expected decline in purchasing power over the lifetime
of their loans.
Ways to increase
the money supply
1. Print more money –
usually, this is done by the Central Bank, though in some countries
governments can dictate the money supply. For example in Zimbabwe
2000s – the govt printed extra money to pay wages.
2. Reducing interest rates.
Lower interest rates reduce the cost of borrowing. This makes
investment relatively more profitable, then encourages economic
activity. Consumers also will see cheaper mortgage payments
resulting in higher income . Read more – effect of cutting interest
rates
3. Quantitative easing The
Central Bank can also electronically create money. Under a policy
of quantitative easing, they plan to increase their bank reserves
‘effectively create money out of thin air’. The created money are
often wont to buy assets; the thought is to extend cash reserves of
banks.
4. Reduce the reserve ratio
for lending. The reserve ratio is the percentage of deposits that
bank keeps in cash reserves. If the reserve ratio is reduced, then
the bank will lend more and thanks to the cash multiplier, we'll
see an increase in bank lending. Central Banks can set a minimum
reserve ratio. Reducing this ratio
5. Increase confidence in
the banking system. If banks believe within the economic system ,
then they're going to be more willing to lend. In the credit
crisis, it had been necessary for the govt to ensure bank deposits
and nationalise struggling banks
6. Central Bank buying
government securities. The Central Bank pays investors holding
bonds. If the financial institution buy Government securities (or
corporate bonds) people that were holding the bonds have extra
money to spend. Banks see illiquid assets become liquid. Therefore,
in certain circumstances, this can lead to an increase in the money
supply. However, it depends on whether the bond purchases are
sterilised or ‘unsterilised’. Unsterilised means they create money
to buy bonds.
7. Expansionary fiscal
policy. In a recession, there's often a ‘paradox of thrift’
business and consumers want to extend savings – and this results in
a fall in spending and investment. If the government borrows from
the private sector and spends on public work investment schemes
then this will start a multiplier effect where households gain
wages to spend and encourage private sector investment.
In recent decades
the cash supply has been increasing because:
• Reduction in reserve
ratio by banks – seeking greater profitability
• Creation of new types of
liquid assets which make it easier for banks to lend
• Increased velocity of
circulation. – The number of times cash changes
• Interest rates: money
pays little or no interest, so the interest rate is the opportunity
cost of holding money instead of other assets, like bonds, which
have a higher expected return/interest rate. a better rate of
interest means a better cost of holding money → lower money demand
Prices: the costs of products and services bought in transactions
will influence the willingness to carry money to conduct those
transactions.A higher price level means a greater need for
liquidity to buy the same amount of goods and services → higher
money demand hands.
Investment spending is a
crucial category of real GDP. Not only is it always the foremost
volatile a part of real GDP, but investment spending on physical
capital is additionally a crucial contributor to economic process .
So, if a firm wants to create a replacement factory, where does it
get the funds to create it? Usually, firms borrow that
money.
The marketplace for
loanable funds describes how that borrowing happens. The supply of
loanable funds is predicated on savings. The demand for loanable
funds is predicated on borrowing. The interaction between the
availability of savings and therefore the demand for loans
determines the important rate of interest and the way much is
loaned out.
B) The price level is fixed in the short run
It’s fixed in place and, if it’s
moving, it’s doing so really slowly! When things don’t move or
adjust quickly, economists will often ask them as “sticky.” as an
example , if market prices or wages don’t adjust quickly to changes
within the economy, they are called sticky prices. And when faced
with things like sticky wages and costs , an economy won't produce
its financial condition output.
The short-run aggregate
supply curve (SRAS) lets us capture how all of the firms in an
economy answer price stickiness. When prices are sticky, the SRAS
curve will slope upward. The SRAS curve shows that a better price
index results in more output.
There are two important
things to notice about SRAS. For one, it represents a short-run
relationship between price level and output supplied. Aggregate
supply slopes up within the short-run because a minimum of one
price is inflexible. Second, SRAS also tells us there's a short-run
tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Because higher
inflation results in more output, higher inflation is additionally
related to lower unemployment within the short run.
By the term fixed price, we
mean that price remains constant. They do not change as per demand
and provide conditions within the short run. The reason behind this
is that there are always chances that aggregate demand and supply
do not equalize in an economy. Prices take time to respond to these
conditions.
A single firm might not be
a really" during a position to influence prices because it
could be contributing a very small share to the entire market
output. Therefore, firms might become individual price takers in
the short run (like the case of perfect competition). For these
reasons, within the short-run, prices remain fixed. Prices change
in the long-run.
impact of an increase in
the money supply on the expected real rate of
interest.
All else being equal, a
bigger funds lowers market interest rates, making it less costly
for consumers to borrow. Conversely, smaller money supplies tend to
boost market interest rates, making it pricier for consumers to
require out a loan. The current level of liquid money (supply)
coordinates with the entire demand for liquid money (demand) to
assist determine interest rates. More Money Available, Lower
Interest Rates.
In a free enterprise , all
prices, even prices for present money, are coordinated by supply
and demand. Some individuals have a greater demand for present
money than their current reserves allow; most homebuyers don't have
$300,000 lying around, for example. To get more present money,
these individuals enter the credit market and borrow from those
that have an more than present money (savers). Interest rates
determine the value of the borrowed present money.
C) Liquidity
Effect
When the Fed pursues a
decent monetary policy, it takes money out of the system by selling
Treasury securities and raising the reserve requirement at banks.
This raises interest rates because the demand for credit is so high
that lenders price their loans higher to require advantage of the
demand. Tight money and high interest rates tend to slow economic
activity and may cause a recession. During periods of financial
condition companies, terminate employees and consumers crop on
their spending. House prices also decline as fewer people are ready
to afford the boom time prices. So, low liquidity has the other
effect on the economy from high liquidity.
Liquidity effect, in
economics, refers broadly to how increases or decreases within the
availability of cash influence interest rates and consumer
spending, also as investments and price stability. The Federal
Reserve, the main body that controls the availability of money in
the United States, employs mechanisms such as changes in the amount
of money banks keep in reserve and the sale or purchase of Treasury
securities to create liquidity effect.
Liquidity preference theory
may be a model that means that an investor should demand a better
rate of interest or premium on securities with long-term maturities
that carry greater risk because, all other factors being equal,
investors prefer cash or other highly liquid holdings.
According to this theory,
which was developed by John Maynard Keynes in support of his idea
that the demand for liquidity holds speculative power, investments
that are more liquid are easier to cash in for full value. Cash is
usually accepted because the most liquid asset. According to the
liquidity preference theory, interest rates on short-term
securities are lower because investors aren't sacrificing liquidity
for greater time frames than medium or longer-term
securities.
The term “liquidity” is
widely used in the literature, though its understanding varies
significantly. The goal of the first section of the Chapter is,
thus, to provide an unambiguous definition, which could be referred
to throughout the analysis. Firstly, existing notions of liquidity
are reviewed and classified into two main approaches: one focusing
on the characteristics of assets (asset liquidity) and the other
one regarding the subject from the market perspective (market
liquidity). In the second step, the concept of liquidity risk is
introduced and integrated into these approaches; a two-dimensional
notion of liquidity results.
In particular, the main characteristics of investments and investment environments, which may have a significant impact on different aspects of liquidity, are discussed.
The following, third section adds a practical dimension to the discussion. A review of assets with respect to which liquidity problems are especially severe is offered and their characteristics are analyzed. The identification of illiquid assets is also necessary to determine the scope of application of the methods developed later. Finally, the fourth section deals with the economic relevance of liquidity. Its role in the economy is discussed concentrating especially on individual investment decisions.
Liquidity: a requirement for greater liquidity occurs when either the worth of transactions increases or the number of products normally bought in transactions increases.
(d) Liquidity
Trap
A liquidity trap may be a
contradictory economic situation during which interest rates are
very low and savings rates are high, rendering monetary policy
ineffective. First described by economist John Maynard Keynes,
during a liquidity trap, consumers prefer to avoid bonds and keep
their funds in cash savings due to the prevailing belief that
interest rates could soon rise (which would push bond prices down).
Because bonds have an inverse relationship to interest rates, many
consumers don't want to carry an asset with a price that's expected
to say no . At an equivalent time, financial institution efforts to
spur economic activity are hampered as they're unable to lower
interest rates further to incentivize investors and
consumers.
• A liquidity trap is when
monetary policy becomes ineffective due to very low interest rates
combined with consumers who prefer to save rather than invest in
higher-yielding bonds or other investments.
• While a liquidity trap is
a function of economic conditions, it is also psychological since
consumers are making a choice to hoard cash instead of choosing
higher-paying investments because of a negative economic
view.
• A liquidity trap isn't
limited to bonds. It also affects other areas of the economy, as
consumers are spending less on products which suggests businesses
are less likely to rent .
• Some ways to get out of a
liquidity trap include raising interest rates, hoping the situation
will regulate itself as prices fall to attractive levels, or
increased government spending.
• One marker of a liquidity
trap is low interest rates. Low interest rates can affect
bondholder behavior, along side other concerns regarding the
present financial state of the state , leading to the selling of
bonds during a way that is harmful to the economy.
Further, additions made to the cash
supply fail to end in price index changes, as consumer behavior
leans toward saving funds in low-risk ways. Since a rise in funds
means extra money is within the economy, it's reasonable that a
number of that cash should flow toward the higher-yield assets like
bonds. But during a liquidity trap it doesn't, it just gets stashed
away in cash accounts as savings.
• Low interest rates alone
do not define a liquidity trap. For things to qualify, there has
got to be a scarcity of bondholders wishing to stay their bonds and
a limited supply of investors looking to get them. Instead, the
investors are prioritizing strict cash savings over bond
purchasing. If investors are still curious about holding or
purchasing bonds sometimes when interest rates are low, even
approaching zero percent, things doesn't qualify as a liquidity
trap.
Description:
Liquidity trap is that the extreme
effect of monetary policy. It is a situation during which the
overall public is ready to carry on to whatever amount of cash is
supplied, at a given rate of interest. They do so because of the
fear of adverse events like deflation, war.
In that case, a monetary
policy carried out through open market operations has no effect on
either the interest rate, or the level of income. In a liquidity
trap, the monetary policy is powerless to affect the rate of
interest .
There is a liquidity trap
at short term zero percent rate of interest . When rate of interest
is zero, public wouldn't want to carry any bond, since money, which
also pays zero percent interest, has the advantage of being usable
in transactions.
Hence, if the interest is
zero, a rise in quantity of cash cannot not induce anyone to shop
for bonds and thereby reduce the interest on bonds below
zero.
The impact on
velocity, Is there a liquidity trap:
A liquidity trap often
occurs after a severe recession. Families and businesses are afraid
to spend regardless of what proportion credit is out there . It's
like a flooded car engine. You've released such a lot gas into the
engine that it crowds out the oxygen. Pumping the gas pedal doesn't
help.
That's what happens in a
liquidity trap. The Fed's gas is credit and therefore the pedal is
lower interest rates. When the Fed pushes the accelerator , it
doesn't rev up the economic engine. Instead, businesses and
families hoard their cash. They don't have the confidence to spend
it, so they do nothing. The economic engine is flooded.
Low-Interest
Rates
For a liquidity trap to
occur, interest rates must near or at zero. If it's been there for
a while, people believe that interest rates have nowhere to go but
up. When that happens, no one wants to own bonds. A bond bought
today that pays low rates won't be as valuable after interest rates
rise. Everyone will want the bonds issued then because it pays a
higher return. The low-rate bond will be worth less in
comparison.
Prices Remain
Low
Consumer prices remain low.
Typically, when the central bank adds to the money supply, it
creates inflation. During normal times, for each 1% increase in the
growth of money, inflation increases by 0.54%.1
In a liquidity trap, it's
more likely there'll be deflation or falling prices. People
postpone buying things because they believe prices are going to be
lower within the future.
Businesses Don't
Spend the Extra Cash
Businesses don't take
advantage of low-interest rates to invest in expansion. Instead,
they use it to buy back shares and artificially boost stock prices.
They don't use it to shop for new capital equipment, they create do
with the old. They might also purchase new companies in mergers and
acquisitions or leveraged buy-outs. These activities boost the
stock exchange but not the economy.
Wage Remain
Stagnant
Companies are also
reluctant to use the extra funds to hire new workers. As a result,
wages remain stagnant. Without rising incomes, families only buy
what they need and save the rest. This further contributes to the
lack of demand.
Lower Interest
Rates Don't Translate to Increased Lending
Banks are supposed to take
the extra money the Fed pumps into the economy and lend it out in
mortgages, small business loans, and credit cards. During a
recession, people aren't confident, so they won't borrow. Banks use
the additional cash to write down down debt or increase their
capital to guard against future debt . They might raise their
lending requirements, as well.
Five things can get
the economy out of a liquidity trap by stimulating
demand.
Raise Interest
Rates
First, the Fed raises
interest rates. An increase in short-term rates encourages people
to invest and save their cash, instead of hoarding it. Higher
long-term rates encourage banks to lend since they'll get a better
return. That increases the velocity of money.
Price Fall
Enough
The economy could get going
again once prices fall to such a coffee point that folks just can't
resist shopping. It can happen with commodity or assets like
stocks. Investors start buying again because they know they will
hold onto the asset long enough to outlast the slump. The future
reward has become greater than the danger.
Expansionary Fiscal
Policy
The government can end a
liquidity trap through expansionary economic policy . That's either
a tax cut or an increase in government spending, or both. That
creates confidence that the nation's leaders will support economic
growth. It also directly creates jobs, reducing unemployment and
the need for hoarding.
Financial
Innovation
Fourth, financial
innovation creates an entirely new market. That makes financial
assets, like stocks, bonds, or derivatives, more attractive than
holding cash.
Global
Rebalancing
If some countries are
experiencing a liquidity trap, et al. aren't , then governments
could end the trap by coordinating global rebalancing. That's when
countries that have too much of one thing trade to those that have
too little.
For example, China and
therefore the eurozone have an excessive amount of cash engaged in
savings. That's a result of consumer spending in the United States
on Chinese exports. China must invest more in the United States to
get that money back into circulation.