In: Economics
The business (or economic) cycle is made up of four phases: expansion, peak, recession, and trough. Expansion is an economy’s natural state, and is characterized by rising GDP, low unemployment, healthy sales, and steady wage growth. An economy enters the peak phase as growth slows and inflation continues to rise. When inflation rises faster than the economy is growing, it will begin to head into a recession. During a recession, economic activity slows, wages drop, and unemployment rises. Eventually, the economy will begin to stabilize and enter the trough period before beginning the next expansion.
In a healthy economy, expansions are the norm with recessions being short and infrequent. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is responsible for marking the official dates of the business cycle in the US. According to NBER, the Great Recession (2007-2009) was last recession, and US in the expansion phase since 2009.
Using the current economic data, it is easy to identify that US in the expansion phase