In: Statistics and Probability
Case Studies:
A. With a total US population of 103, 208,000 in 1918, the paper reveals that 675,000 have died from the H1N1virus. In contrast China had a poplation of 472,000,000 in 1918, it is shown that about 4,000,000 died from the H1N1 Virus.
B. As of April 1, 2020 the CDC provides following statistic on the COVID-19 pandemic: At 213,722 confirmed cases of infection it is revealed that 4,769 have died of the illness. In comparison China has confirmed 81,556 cases, of which 3,312 have died form the illness.
Project Questions:
1) Organize the data in a graphical representation that best describes the relationship of the data. (Histogram, Pie Chart, Box Plot, or any other graph you think works)
2) For case A and for case B translate the following questions into a hypothesis test and analyze the appropriate conclusion. A: Is there enough evidence to suggest that China had a higher death rate than the US regarding H1N1 virus? B: Is there enough evidence to suggest that China has a lower death rate than the US regarding COVID-19?
3) Develop a question that will allow you to compare the data from N1H1 virus of 1918 to the data from COVID-19 of 2020. Set it up as a hypothesis test question and analyze the conclusion. Careful: N1H1 used the total population, while COVID-19 applied death rate only to confirmed cases of infection.
1) The scateer plot describes the relationship of data.
2) Let us suppose the null hypothesis is H0: Proportion of death in US = Proportion of death in China
1918 | 2020 | |||||
State | Population | Died | Percentage of death due to H1N1 | Confirmed | Died | Percentage of Death due to COVID |
US | 103208000 | 675000 | 0.654019068 | 2,13,722 | 4,769 | 2.231403412 |
China | 472000000 | 4000000 | 0.847457627 | 81556 | 3312 | 4.061013291 |
A. There is a clear evidence to suggest that China had a higher death rate than the US regarding H1N1 virus because, in case of studying the death occured due to H1N1 virus we see that the proportion of death proportion of died person in China is greater than proportion of died person in US respect to total population.
B. There is no clear evidence to suggest that China has a lower death rate than the US regarding COVID-19. Because, in case of studying the death occured due to COVID-19 we see that the proportion of died person in China is greater than proportion of died person in US respect to confirmed cases.
3) The question will be: Is there any paticualr evidence which may suggest that the chance of death due to H1N1 is greater than COVID-19 ?
For hypothesis testing w may consider that
our null hypothesis will be H0: Proportion of death due to H1N1 = Proportion of death idue to COVID-19
and alternative hypothesis will be H1: Proportion of death due to H1N1 < Proportion of death idue to COVID-19
But unfortunately we cant draw any kind of conclusion. Because, in the information of N1H1 virus the total population is used, where as confirmed cases of infection is used in case of COVID-19. If we get Total number of confirmed cases due to H1N1 and COVID-19 both then it is possible to test the hypothesis and draw some suitable conclusion.