In: Finance
|
State of Economy |
Probability of State of Economy |
Return of Stock A if State Occurs |
Return of Stock B if State Occurs |
|
Recession |
0.30 |
-0.20 |
0.10 |
|
Normal |
? |
0.30 |
0.20 |
|
Boom |
0.15 |
0.40 |
0.30 |
What is the expected return for Stock A?
What is the standard deviation for Stock A?
Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what are the portfolio returns in each state?
Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what will be the expected return of your portfolio?
Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what will be the standard deviation of your portfolio?
| State of economy | A | B | ||||||
| Recession | -20.00% | 10.00% | ||||||
| Normal | 30.00% | 20.00% | ||||||
| Boom | 40.00% | 30.00% | ||||||
| Probability of normal market= | (100%-30%-15%)=55% | |||||||
| Computation of expected return (A-100%, B-0%) | ||||||||
| 100% | 0% | Average return= Probability * return | Deviation= Return less average return | Deviation^2 | Deviation^2*Probability | |||
| State of economy | Probability | A | B | Portfolio | Portfolio | Portfolio | Portfolio | Stock A |
| Return*weight | ||||||||
| Recession | 30.00% | -20.000% | 0.00% | -20.000% | -6.00% | -36.50% | 13.323% | 3.9968% |
| Normal | 55.00% | 30.000% | 0.00% | 30.000% | 16.50% | 13.50% | 1.823% | 1.0024% |
| Boom | 15.00% | 40.000% | 0.00% | 40.000% | 6.00% | 23.50% | 5.523% | 0.8284% |
| Total | 16.50% | 5.8275% | ||||||
| Expected return-Portfolio | 16.50% | |||||||
| Variance-Portfolio | 5.8275% | |||||||
| Standard deviation-Portfolio | 24.1% | Variance ^0.5 | ||||||
| Total investment | $ 50,000 | |||||||
| Investment in A | $ 20,000 | |||||||
| Investment in A | 20000/50000 | 40% | ||||||
| Investment in B | 60% | |||||||
| Computation of expected return (A-40%, B-60%) | ||||||||
| 40% | 60% | Average return= Probability * Portfolio return | Deviation= Portfolio Return less average return | Deviation^2 | Deviation^2*Probability | |||
| State of economy | Probability | A | B | Portfolio | Portfolio | Portfolio | Portfolio | Stock A |
| Return*weight | ||||||||
| Recession | 30.00% | -8.000% | 6.00% | -2.000% | -0.60% | -19.70% | 3.881% | 1.1643% |
| Normal | 55.00% | 12.000% | 12.00% | 24.000% | 13.20% | 6.30% | 0.397% | 0.2183% |
| Boom | 15.00% | 16.000% | 18.00% | 34.000% | 5.10% | 16.30% | 2.657% | 0.3985% |
| Total | 17.70% | 1.7811% | ||||||
| Expected return-Portfolio | 17.70% | |||||||
| Variance-Portfolio | 1.7811% | |||||||
| Standard deviation-Portfolio | 13.3% | Variance ^0.5 |