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State of Economy Probability of State of Economy Return of Stock A if State Occurs Return...

State of Economy

Probability of State of Economy

Return of Stock A if State Occurs

Return of Stock B if State Occurs

Recession

0.30

-0.20

0.10

Normal

?

0.30

0.20

Boom

0.15

0.40

0.30

What is the expected return for Stock A?

What is the standard deviation for Stock A?

Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what are the portfolio returns in each state?

Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what will be the expected return of your portfolio?

Suppose you have $50,000 total. If you put $20,000 in Stock A and the remainder in Stock B, what will be the standard deviation of your portfolio?

Solutions

Expert Solution

State of economy A B
Recession -20.00% 10.00%
Normal 30.00% 20.00%
Boom 40.00% 30.00%
Probability of normal market= (100%-30%-15%)=55%
Computation of expected return (A-100%, B-0%)
100% 0% Average return= Probability * return Deviation= Return less average return Deviation^2 Deviation^2*Probability
State of economy Probability A B Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Stock A
Return*weight
Recession 30.00% -20.000% 0.00% -20.000% -6.00% -36.50% 13.323% 3.9968%
Normal 55.00% 30.000% 0.00% 30.000% 16.50% 13.50% 1.823% 1.0024%
Boom 15.00% 40.000% 0.00% 40.000% 6.00% 23.50% 5.523% 0.8284%
Total 16.50% 5.8275%
Expected return-Portfolio 16.50%
Variance-Portfolio 5.8275%
Standard deviation-Portfolio 24.1% Variance ^0.5
Total investment $      50,000
Investment in A $      20,000
Investment in A 20000/50000 40%
Investment in B 60%
Computation of expected return (A-40%, B-60%)
40% 60% Average return= Probability * Portfolio return Deviation= Portfolio Return less average return Deviation^2 Deviation^2*Probability
State of economy Probability A B Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Stock A
Return*weight
Recession 30.00% -8.000% 6.00% -2.000% -0.60% -19.70% 3.881% 1.1643%
Normal 55.00% 12.000% 12.00% 24.000% 13.20% 6.30% 0.397% 0.2183%
Boom 15.00% 16.000% 18.00% 34.000% 5.10% 16.30% 2.657% 0.3985%
Total 17.70% 1.7811%
Expected return-Portfolio 17.70%
Variance-Portfolio 1.7811%
Standard deviation-Portfolio 13.3% Variance ^0.5

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