In: Statistics and Probability
The average stock prices of 20 technology companies were compared to see whether they improved one year after the 2008 stock market crash (2008 – 2009). The mean of the differences was computed to be –17.8 USD with a standard deviation of 4.81 USD. Calculate and interpret a 95% confidence interval for the average change in stock prices over the two years.
Solution :
Given that,
Point estimate = sample mean = = -17.8
sample standard deviation = s = 4.81
sample size = n = 20
Degrees of freedom = df = n - 1 = 19
At 95% confidence level the t is ,
= 1 - 95% = 1 - 0.95 = 0.05
/ 2 = 0.05 / 2 = 0.025
t /2,df = t0.025,19 = 2.093
Margin of error = E = t/2,df * (s /n)
= 2.093 * (4.81 / 20)
= 2.251
The 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean is,
- E < < + E
-17.8 - 2.251 < < -17.8 + 2.251
-20.1 < < -15.5
(-20.1 , -15.5)
Therefore, there is 95% confident that the average change in stock prices over the two years is between -20.1 to -15.5.