Question

In: Statistics and Probability

True or false? If there's a positive correlation between two events A and B then there...

True or false? If there's a positive correlation between two events A and B then there are two possible underlying stories behind this correlation: B cause A; two, A causes B.

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Expert Solution

Answer False

Relation between two variable A and B is called correlation. A is independent B depends on A. When with increase in A B increases and A decreases B also decreases positive correlation.e.g. According to height weight.

When A decreases B increases and B decreases A increases. Water in tank negatively correlated with use of water in household.

Causation does NOT always imply correlation. Correlation, by definition, is a simple linear relationship.
Unfortunately, there are way too many correlations in the world. If you look hard enough, you can find thousands of correlations between baseball statistics and stock prices, but none of them may be causally related. Similarly, there are thousands of correlations identified between parts of the human genome and various diseases, yet very few of them may be causally related.

As the number of statistics multiply, the possible number of correlations grows exponentially, but the number of causal relationships grows much more slowly. In the limit, the ratio of causal to correlation goes to zero. So the answer is: There is zero correlation between correlation and causation.

On the other hand, if we measure positive correlation between observations on A and B, we cannot say whether either of A or B is the cause of the other one. In other words, when there is correlation, there may or may not be any causation. Additional knowledge would be required to establish causation. Even if A occurred before B, it wouldn't necessarily be true that A had caused B.
So what's the role of correlation with respect to causation? Correlation is a good starting point for discovering causation in the world.


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