In: Finance
Nextbig Corp. currently has sales of $870 million; sales are expected to grow by 26% next year (year 1). For the year after next (year 2), the growth rate in sales is expected to equal 13%. Over each of the next 2 years, the company is expected to have a net profit margin of 11% and a payout ratio of 55%, and to maintain the common stock outstanding at 25.85 million shares. The stock always trades at a P/E of 16.43 times earnings, and the investor has a required rate of return of 18%. Given this information:
a. Find the stock's intrinsic value (its justified price).
b. Use the IRR approach to determine the stock's expected return, given that it is currently trading at $51.00 per share.
c. Find the holding period returns for this stock for year 1 and for year 2.
Please see the table below. Please be guided by the second column titled “Linkage” to understand the mathematics. Figures in parenthesis, if any, mean negative values. All financials are in $ million; nos. of shares are in million and per share data like EPS, DPS, price are in $.
Parameter | Linkage | 0 | 1 | 2 |
Sales | A | 870.00 | 1,096.20 | 1,238.71 |
y-o-y growth | 26% | 13% | ||
Net profit margin | B | 11% | 11% | |
Net profit | C = A x B | 120.58 | 136.26 | |
Payout ratio | D | 55% | 55% | |
Dividends | E = C x D | 66.32 | 74.94 | |
Number of shares outstanding | F | 25.85 | 25.85 | 25.85 |
EPS | G = C / F | 4.66 | 5.27 | |
P/E Multiple | H | 16.43 | 16.43 | |
Price per share | I = G x H | 76.64 | 86.60 | |
Dividend per share | J = E / F | 2.57 | 2.90 |
a. Find the stock's intrinsic value (its justified price).
Intrisic value = PV of all dividends + PV of terminal value = D1/(1 + r) + D2 / (1 + r) + P2 / (1 + r)2 = 2.57 / (1 + 18%) + 2.90 / (1 + 18%)2 + 86.60 / (1 + 18%)2 = $ 66.45 / share
b. Use the IRR approach to determine the stock's expected return, given that it is currently trading at $51.00 per share.
Please see the table below. IRR = 35.01%
c. Find the holding period returns for this stock for year 1 and for year 2.
HPR1 = (P1 + D1) / P0 - 1 = (76.64 + 2.57) / 51 - 1 = 55.31%
HPR2 = (P2 + D2) / P1 - 1 = (86.60 + 2.90) / 76.64 - 1 = 16.78%