In: Finance
Consider a zero-coupon bond maturing in 2 years with a face value of $1,000 and a yield to maturity of 2%. Assume the recovery rate is 40%, and that default can only happen exactly at the end of the 2-year period. There is a credit default swap (CDS) available for this bond, and the premium is 0.8%.
Scenario |
Bond cash flow |
CDS cash flow |
Default |
||
No Default |
Scenario |
Portfolio cash flow |
Default |
|
No Default |
A. Scenerio 1 - In case of Default
Cash Flow for Bond Holder = Notional Amount * Recovery Rate
= 1000 * 40% = $400 (Inflow)
Cash flow for CDS Buyer = Notional Amount * (1- Recovery Rate)
= 1000 * (1-40%) = $600 (Inflow)
As per CDS Agreement, CDS buyer pays premium to CDS Seller ans in case of default , CDS seller makes on time payment to CDS Buyer of amount defaulted by reference Entity (i.e here Bond Issuer)
Scenerio 2 = In case of no Default
Cash Flow for Bond Holder = Notional Amount
= $1000 received as there is no default
Cash flow for CDS Buyer = 0 as there is no default , CDS seller is not liable to pay anything to CDS Buyer.
B. Portfolio Cash flows
In case of default = $400+ $600 = $1000
In case of no default = $1000 +0 = $1000
(Remember Bond is backed by CDS, CDS in the portfolio only has value if default occurs.
Also there is no need to do Weighted Average as both represents same asset, it is just that CDS is security here)