Suppose that you are an engineer at a military defense contractor. You are told that at...

Suppose that you are an engineer at a military defense contractor. You are told that at some point in the next week, your manager will come in and inspect your o ce. You know from previous inspections that the probability of your manager showing up on a given day (assuming that your manager visits at all) is:

Monday: 15%

Tuesday: 20%

Wednesday: 45%

Thursday: 15%

Friday: 5%

Answer the following questions:

On what day can you expect your manager to visit?

What is the variance of this expectation?

You have planned a fishing trip for the weekend. What is the probability that you can be gone on both Thursday and Friday without missing your manager?

You come back from your fishing trip and learn that your manager didn’t actually visit last week, and that they would be visiting this week instead. However, you need some time to recover after your trip. What is the probability that your boss will visit no earlier than Wednesday?

Solutions

Expert Solution

** D is the random variable representing the given days.

D. Since nothing has been mentioned about the dependence of the probabilities on weekly basis, we can safely assume that the given probabilities won't change after the fact that the manager didn't visit last week.

According to the question, the manager can't visit on Monday or Tuesday. Using the complementary property of probability, the required probability is:

P = 1 - P(1) + P(2) = 1 - 0.15 - 0.2 = 0.65

orchestra answered 2 years ago

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