In: Operations Management
Q3.
Premium Toyota dealership wants to develop forecasts for next year’s quarterly sales of a midsize SUV. Sales were 80,000 in 2018 and 84,000 in 2019. It has collected quarterly sales for the past two years. It has also forecast total annual sales for next year to be 90,000 SUVs. What is the forecast for each of the four quarters of next year?
Quarter Sales (in thousands) |
2018 |
2019 |
Fall |
24 |
26 |
Winter |
23 |
22 |
Spring |
19 |
19 |
Summer |
Q4
Mister Baker wants to evaluate performance of its pastries forecast. Mister Baker sales in last four weeks were 80, 100, 105, and 90 units, respectively. In addition, the sales forecasts (for the same four weeks) were 60, 80, 95, and 75 units, respectively. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for these four weeks.
Sales |
Forecast |
80 |
60 |
100 |
80 |
105 |
95 |
90 |
75 |
Answer for Q3
Quarter | Sales (in thousands) |
Fall | 27 |
Winter | 25 |
Spring | 21 |
Summer | 17 |
Answer for Q4.
MAD,Mean Absolute Deviation | 16.25 |
MSE,Mean Square Error | 281.25 |
MAPE,Mean Absolute Percentage Error | 0.1780 or 17.80% |
Explanation