In: Finance
Assume that the % expected return for security A and the market M for a good, normal and bad economy (probabilities .3,.4,.3) are 20, 16, and 10 for A and 8, 4, and 12 for M. Also assume that you invest 40% in A and 60% in M. Compute the standard deviation for a portfolio of A and M.
\
1.69
3.90
3.32
3.55
State of economy | Probability | Return on security A |
Return on market M |
Good | 0.3 | 20% | 8% |
Normal | 0.4 | 16% | 4% |
Bad | 0.3 | 10% | 12% |
Expected Return of A and M
Expected return is calculated using the formula:
Expected return = E[R] = p1*R1 + p2*R2 + p3*R3
Expected return on security A = E[RA] = 0.3*20% + 0.4*16% + 0.3*10% = 15.4%
Expected return on M = E[RM] = 0.3*8% + 0.4*4% + 0.3*12% = 7.6%
Variance is calculated using the formula:
Varaince = σ2 = p1*(R1-E[R])2 + p2*(R2-E[R])2 + p3*(R3-E[R])2
Standard deviation is calculated as the square-root of variance
Standard deviation of A
Variance of A = σA2 = 0.3*(20% - 15.4%)2 + 0.4*(16% - 15.4%)2 + 0.3*(10% - 15.4%)2 = 0.0006348 + 0.0000144 + 0.0008748 = 0.001524
Standard deviation od A is square-root of variance of A
Standard deviation of A = σA = (0.001524)1/2 = 0.0390384425918863
Standard Deviation of M
Variance of M = σM2 = 0.3*(8% - 7.6%)2 + 0.4*(4% - 7.6%)2 + 0.3*(12% - 7.6%)2 = 0.0000048 + 0.0005184 + 0.0005808 = 0.001104
Standard deviation of M is square-root of variance of M
Standard deviation of M = σM = (0.001104)1/2 = 0.0332264954516723
Covariance of A and M
Covariance between the return of A and M is calculated using the formula:
Cov(A,M) = p1*(R1,A - E[RA])*(R1,M - E[RM]) + p2*(R2,A - E[RA])*(R2,M - E[RM]) + p3*(R3,A - E[RA])*(R3,M - E[RM]) = 0.3*(20% - 15.4%)*(8%-7.6%) + 0.4*(16% - 15.4%)*(4%-7.6%) + 0.3*(10% - 15.4%)*(12%-7.6%) = 0.0000552 + (-0.0000864) + (-0.0007128) = -0.000744
Portfolio
Weight of A in the portfolio = WA = 40%
Weight of M in the portfolio = WM = 60%
Standard deviation of A = σA = 0.0390384425918863
Standard deviation of M = σM = 0.0332264954516723
Cov(A,M) = -0.000744
Variance of portfolio = σP2 = WA2*σA2 + WM2*σA2+ 2*Cov(A,M)*WA*WM = (40%)2*(0.0390384425918863)2 + (60%)2*(0.0332264954516723)2 + 2*(-0.000744)*40%*60% = 0.00024384 + 0.00039744 + (-0.00035712) = 0.00028416
Standard deviation of portfolio is square-root of variance
Standard deviation of portfolio = σP = 0.0168570460045644 = 1.68570460045644% ~ 1.69%
Answer -> 1.69