In: Finance
Boom and Fall (B&F) expects to grow its business in the first 3 years and then the business expects the growth to decline after. The company just paid its annual dividend of $1 per share and is planning to increase its annual dividend by 10% for the next 3 years, and then the dividend will decline at an annual rate of 4% forever.
What is the value of B&F stock in one year if the required return is 12%? What would be the impact on B&F stock price if the business growth will not decline after 3 years, therefore management would maintain the same dividend as that of year 3? Explain.
Recent Dividend Paid = $1
Growth in the dividend = 10%
Dividend paid in year 1 = 1*(1 + 10%) = 1*1.1 = $1.1
Dividend paid in year 2 = 1.1*(1 + 10%) = 1.1 * 1.1 = $1.21
Dividend paid in year 3 = 1.21*(1+10%) = 1.21*1.1 = $1.331
Year 4 onwards, the growth rate -4%
Hence, the dividend paid in year 4 = 1.331*(1-4%)
= $1.27776
The dividends are shown as below:
Value of stock = Present values of the dividends
According to the Gordon Growth Model, the present value of perpetuity with growth rate, g, is given as:
PV = D1/(r - g)
where D1 = Expected dividend next year
r = required rate of return = 12%
g = growth rate
Solution 1) Present value of the perpetuity after year 4 will be calculated at year 3 as:
PV (Perpetuity at t=3) : D4/(r - g)
= 1.27776/(12% - (-4%))
= 1.27776/(16%)
= $7.986
The value of the stock at t=1 year is calculated as:
Since the stock price is to be calculated after 1 year, hence, the present values are calculated at the end of year 1
Thus, stock price = Present value of 1.21 at t=1+ Present value of 9.317 at t=1
= 1.21/(1+12%) + 9.317/(1+12%)^2
= 1.080357 + 7.427455
= 8.507813
= $8.51
Solution 2) Current stock price = Present value of expected dividends
= 1.1/(1 + 12%) + 1.21/(1+12%)^2 + 9.317/(1+12%)^3
= $8.578404
If the perpetuity remains constant, then, the present value of perpetuity at t=3 is calculated as:
= 1.27776/(12% - 0%)
= 1.27776/(12%)
= $10.648
The dividends would be:
Thus, current stock price would be given as:
= 1.1/(1 + 12%) + 1.21/(1+12%)^2 + 11.979/(1+12%)^3
= $10.473
Hence, the stock price has increased.
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