In a backyard vineyard in Napa Valley with 10 grape
vines in a row, if the weather works well (just right), rain in the
Spring and dry through summer, the yield for each vine is
distributed roughly binomial with N=800, p=0.5. In a drought the
yield is Binomial with N=800 and P=0.48, while if the year is too
wet, the yield of useful grapes per vine is N=600, P=0.2. Under
climate change the probability of just the right year is...