Question

Chapter 6 begins with some alternative explanations for recent changes in the homicide rate. Which of the explanations make the most sense to you? Why? How could you learn more about the effect on crime of one of the "causes" you have identified in a laboratory experiment? What type of study could you conduct in the community to assess its causal impact?

Answer 1

1. THE CHANGING HOMICIDE RATE

During the past decade some sharp swings have occurred in the homicide rate in the United States. The rate in 1980 was a peak of 10.2 per 100,000 population, and by 1985 it fell to a trough of 7.9. It then climbed a full 24% to a peak of 9.8 in 1991, and has been declining markedly since then, reaching a level of 7.4 in 1996 and 6.8 in 1997, which is lower than any annual rate since 1967.

2. REASONS OF CHANGES:-

Much of the speculation about the recent decline in homicide rates attributes the decline to changing demographics.This may be a hold-over from the realization that much of the decline that began in 1980 was attributable to a demographic shift, as the baby-boom generation aged out of the high-crime ages.But those same demographic effects are not still at work in the early 1990s, since demographic effects do not always have to work in the same direction. The decline after 1980 was significantly affected by the shrinking size of the cohorts in the high-crime ages, but the U.S. in the 1990s is in a period of growing cohort sizes in the late teens and early twenties.

Finally, it is possible that changes in relative cohort size could alter the age-specific rates through mechanisms described by Easterlin and others. However, the evidence suggests that if changes in the relative size of age cohorts influence homicide rates, the cohort effects are minor compared to age and period effects.

3. causes:-

Poverty can also produce violent crimes because force is an easy way to get a large quantity of goods.Thus, poverty causes desire, and in turn, increases the crime rate

Most people today accept that poverty, parental neglect, low self-esteem, alcohol and drug abuse are all connected in explaining whypeople commit crimes. Some people are simply at greater risk of becoming offenders because of the circumstances into which they are born.

4. study on how much does poverty affect crime

(a)  Studies have found that "more densely populated neighborhoods tend to be poorer, have higher percentages of persons in the age range of 12 to 20, have larger concentrations of single-parent households, and larger nonwhite populations"

(b) process of study:-

• This study first examines how poverty affects crime in the simple regression model.
• Then, controlling for the aforementioned factors - race, unemployment, personal income, population density, geographic location, and age distribution - it again examines the relationship between crime and poverty and how this relationship is influenced when these factors are held constant.

(C) Data from larger areas (such as states) would be too general and too many conflicting characteristics within the area would be incorporated into the data. The Metropolitan Areas provide a sample composed of similar makeup, but with sufficient variation to provide a good model. Each area has different poverty levels, population density, etc.

(d) results of this analysis:-

[Studies] found that homicides were disproportionately concentrated in areas of poverty.These studies as well as the above analysis show that poverty is correlated with violent crimes - increased poverty leads to increased violent crime.