Question

Suppose that you are part of the Management team at Porsche. Suppose that it is the end of December 2019 and a novel coronavirus that causes a respiratory illness was identified in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China. The illness was reported to the World Health Organization and there is heightened uncertainty around the Globe. You (as part of the management team) are reviewing Porsche’s hedging strategy for the cash flows it expects to obtain from vehicle sales in North America during the calendar year 2020. Assume that Porsche’s management entertains three scenarios: Scenario 1 (Expected): The expected volume of North American sales in 2020 is 35,000 vehicles. Scenario 2 (Pandemic): The low-sales scenario is 50% lower than the expected sales volume. Scenario 3 (High Growth): The high-sales scenario is 20% higher than the expected sales volume. Assume, in each scenario, that the average sales price per vehicle is $85,000 and that all sales are realised at the end of December 2020. All variable costs incurred by producing an additional vehicle to be sold in North America in 2020 are billed in euros (€) and amount to €55,000 per vehicle. Shipping an additional vehicle to be sold in North America in 2020 are billed in € and amount to €3,000 per vehicle. The current spot exchange rate is (bid-ask) $1.11/€ - $1.12/€ and forward bid-ask is $1.18/€ - $1.185/€. The option premium is €0.025, and option strike price is €0.922. Your finance team made the following forecasts about the exchange rates at the end of December 2020:

• bid-ask will be $1.45/€ - $1.465/€ if the investors (and speculators) consider the euro (€) a safe haven currency during the pandemic.

• bid-ask will be $0.88/€-$0.90/€ if the investors (and speculators) consider the U.S. dollar ($) a safe haven currency during the pandemic 1. You decided not to hedge Porsche’s currency exposure. If the expected final sales volume is 35,000, what are your total revenues

1. You decided not to hedge Porsche’s currency exposure. If the expected final sales volume is 35,000, what are your total revenues

a) if the exchange rate (bid-ask) remains at $1.11/€ - $1.12/€? Let’s call this the baseline scenario.

b) if the investors consider the euro a safe haven currency during the pandemic? How does this compare to the baseline case?

c) if the investors consider the U.S. dollar a safe haven currency during the pandemic? How does this compare to the baseline case?

Answer 1

Avg. Sales Price per vehicle = $85,000

Variable Cost = €55,000

Shipping cost = €3000

Current spot exchange rate is (bid-ask) = $1.11/€ - $1.12/€ = avg of bid and ask = $1.115/€

forward bid-ask = $1.18/€ - $1.185/€ = $1.1825/€

option strike price = €0.922

option premium = 0.025 * €0.922 = €0.02305

Euro (€) a safe haven currency = $1.45/€ - $1.465/€ = $1.4575/€

U.S. dollar ($) a safe haven currency = $0.88/€-$0.90/€ = $0.89/€

Expected final sales volume is 35,000

a) Exchange rate (bid-ask) = $1.11/€ - $1.12/€(baseline)

Total revenue = 35000*$85000 = $2,975,000,000

Revenue in Euro with no hedge = $2,975,000,000 / $1.115/€ = €2,668,161,435

b)Euro safe haven currency

Total sales of vehicle = 50% * 35000=17,500

Revenue = 17500*$85000 = $1,487,500,000

Revenue in Euro with no hedge = $1,487,500,000/$1.4575/€ =€1,020,583,190

Revenue change compared to baseline = €1,020,583,190 - €2,668,161,435 = -€1,647,578,245

c)U.S. dollar a safe haven currency

Total sales of vehicle = 50% * 35000=17,500

Revenue = 17500*$85000 = $1,487,500,000

Revenue in Euro with no hedge = $1,487,500,000/$0.89/€ = €1,671,348,315

Revenue change compared to baseline = €1,671,348,315 - €2,668,161,435 = -€996,813,120