In: Finance
Suppose you just have had your 55th birthday and you plan to
retire in five years. As far as your retirement goal is concerned,
all you want is to maintain your living standard at the same level
as when you start your retirement. You expect to “stick around”
until 90 and you plan to leave nothing to no one”. Therefore, your
“sole” concern is maintaining your living standard during your
retirement years.
Your current living expense per month is $20,000 (which include
everything that you can possibly lay your fingers on) and you
expect it to go up in exactly the same pace as the Composite CPI
(Of Hong Kong) The average yearly rate of increase of the index for
the next five years is 3% You do, however,
expect the index to pick up its (yearly) pace afterwards (indeed,
throughout your entire retirement period) by 2 percentage points.
That is, the expected yearly inflation rate as measured by the CPI
is 5% per year during your retirement years.
To facilitate the planning of your retirement, you listed out the
following relevant questions which you would like to think
over’
a) To achieve your “sole” retirement goal, how much money do you
need at the beginning of the first
year, 10th year and the last year of your retirement period [Note
that as the expected inflation rate
provided in the question is assumed to be yearly, simply assume the
overall price level remains unchanged throughout each year BUT
jumps at the end of the year (i.e., at the beginning of the coming
year],
b) i) State the approximate and exact relationships between nominal
rate of return, real rate of return and (expected) inflation rate.
What is the name of this relationship?
ii) Given the inflation figures provided in the question, what is
the average yearly investment rate of return (based on the exact
relationship in part (i)) that you need to achieve to maintain your
living standard during the retirement years? (3 mans)
c) Using the PVA formula. estimate how much money do you need to
have in your investment account at the beginnlng of youf retirement
to achieve your “sole” retirement goal lF the expected yearly
investment return is
- 7%
- 10%
- 40%
[Note: Marks would only be given for using the PVA formula in the
calculations. Although some of you may be tempted to use the
present value growing annuity formula (which was NOT covered in the
lFM course) to answer this question, I would strongly urge you NOT
to use that formula Instead, please draw on the insights derived
from Part (bi) above to construct the relevant equation and carry
out the calculations ]
d) Based on your answer to Part (c) above, what conclusion can you
draw with respect to the relationships between (i) nominal cash
flow, (ii) real (inflation-adjusted) cash flow, (iii) nominal
interest rate and (iv) real interest rate when using the PVA
formula to answer Part (c)*
a) | Amount needed at the beginning of first year retirement | $23,185.48 | (20000*((1+0.03)^5) | |||||||||
Amount needed at the beginning of 10th year retirement | $5,914,021.98 | (23185.48*(1+0.05)^9) | ||||||||||
Amount needed at the beginning of Last year retirement | $95,434.59 | (23185.48*(1.05^29) | ||||||||||
b.i) | Assume Nominal return =Rn | |||||||||||
Real Return=Rr | ||||||||||||
Inflation Rate =Ri | ||||||||||||
Approximate relationship: | ||||||||||||
Rr=Rn-Ri | ||||||||||||
Exact relationship: | ||||||||||||
(1+Rr)*(1+Ri)=(1+Rn) | ||||||||||||
b(ii) | Average Yearly Investment Return Required | 5% | ||||||||||
c | ||||||||||||
Pmt | Monthly expense required after 5 years | $23,185 | (20000*(1.03^5) | |||||||||
Nper | Number of months of expenses after retirement | 360 | (90-60)*12 | |||||||||
Inflation Rate during retirement=5% | 0.05 | |||||||||||
Rate1 | Inflation adjusted return if nominal return is 7% | 1.90% | (1.07/1.05)-1 | |||||||||
Rate2 | Inflation adjusted return if nominal return is 10% | 4.76% | (1.10/1.05)-1 | |||||||||
Rate3 | Inflation adjusted return if nominal return is 40% | 33.33% | (1.40/1.05)-1 | |||||||||
PV1 | Present Value of expenses at retirement at 7% return | $1,242,029 | (Using PV function of excel with Rate =1.90%, Nper=360,Pmt=-23185, Type=1) | |||||||||
PV2 | Present Value of expenses at retirement at 10% return | $510,265 | (Using PV function of excel with Rate =4.76%, Nper=360,Pmt=-23185, Type=1) | |||||||||
PV3 | Present Value of expenses at retirement at 4% return | $92,740 | (Using PV function of excel with Rate =33.33%, Nper=3600,Pmt=-23185, Type=1) | |||||||||
Note: Type=1, because withdrawals are at beginning of months | ||||||||||||
Money needed in investment account at the beginning of retirement: | ||||||||||||
Yearly investment return 7% | $1,242,029 | |||||||||||
Yearly investment return 10% | $510,265 | |||||||||||
Yearly investment return 40% | $92,740 | |||||||||||
(iii) | As the nominal interest rate reduces, the real interest rate will also reduce | |||||||||||
Consequently , the amount required at beginning for same cash flow will increase | ||||||||||||