In: Finance
Your task is to value Shake Shack's (SHAK’s) stock. Shake Shack's dividends two, four, and five years from now are expected to be, respectively, $3.25, $4.10, and $4.50. (Shake Shack has announced that it’ll not pay any dividends at t=1 and t=3, instead using nearly all free cash to add restaurants across the country.) Across years 6 and 7 and 8, dividends will grow by 7%/year. The dividends are projected to grow, after that, at a constant rate of 3% forever. SHAK has a debt-to-equity ratio (in market-value terms) of 1.0. The yield to maturity on SHAK's bonds averages 4% and the company's tax rate is 30%. If the risk-free rate is 2.2%, the market risk premium is 6%, and SHAK's equity beta is 1.25, what should the stock sell for today based on a discounted valuation of its projected dividends?
cost of equity = 2.2% + 1.25*6% = 9.70%
WACC = (4%*0.7 + 9.70%)/2 = 6.25%
Discount rate | 6.2500% | ||
Cash flows | Year | Discounted CF= cash flows/(1+rate)^year | Cumulative cash flow |
- | 0 | - | - |
- | 1 | - | - |
3.250 | 2 | 2.88 | 2.88 |
- | 3 | - | 2.88 |
4.100 | 4 | 3.22 | 6.10 |
4.500 | 5 | 3.32 | 9.42 |
4.815 | 6 | 3.35 | 12.77 |
5.152 | 7 | 3.37 | 16.14 |
163.280 | 7 | 106.81 | 122.95 |
price = 122.95