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4. What is the empirical probability of a loss? [Topic 2] Date OLIM Int. 15/6/2014 2.36...

4. What is the empirical probability of a loss? [Topic 2]

Date OLIM Int.

15/6/2014 2.36

22/6/2014 2.46

29/6/2014 2.52

6/7/2014 2.46

13/7/2014 2.44

20/7/2014 2.54

27/7/2014 2.46

3/8/2014 2.42

10/8/2014 2.54

17/8/2014 2.53

24/8/2014 2.65

31/8/2014 2.64

7/9/2014 2.56

14/9/2014 2.54

21/9/2014 2.4

28/9/2014 2.3

5/10/2014 2.2

12/10/2014 2.08

19/10/2014 2.06

26/10/2014 2.13

2/11/2014 2.11

9/11/2014 2.25

16/11/2014 2.24

23/11/2014 2.16

30/11/2014 2.09

7/12/2014 2.04

14/12/2014 2.11

21/12/2014 2.09

28/12/2014 2.04

4/1/2015 2.01

11/1/2015 1.96

18/1/2015 2

25/1/2015 1.975

1/2/2015 2.03

8/2/2015 2

15/2/2015 2

22/2/2015 2

1/3/2015 2

8/3/2015 2.01

15/3/2015 1.98

22/3/2015 1.99

29/3/2015 2

5/4/2015 2.03

12/4/2015 2.05

19/4/2015 2

26/4/2015 2.02

3/5/2015 2

10/5/2015 1.98

17/5/2015 1.985

24/5/2015 1.985

31/5/2015 1.88

7/6/2015 1.885

14/6/2015 1.865

21/6/2015 1.865

28/6/2015 1.885

5/7/2015 1.825

12/7/2015 1.79

19/7/2015 1.78

26/7/2015 1.84

2/8/2015 1.8

9/8/2015 1.8

16/8/2015 1.755

23/8/2015 2.07

30/8/2015 1.98

6/9/2015 1.975

13/9/2015 2.04

20/9/2015 1.995

27/9/2015 2

4/10/2015 2

11/10/2015 2

18/10/2015 1.98

25/10/2015 2

1/11/2015 1.99

8/11/2015 1.915

15/11/2015 1.845

22/11/2015 1.82

29/11/2015 1.805

6/12/2015 1.77

13/12/2015 1.81

20/12/2015 1.835

27/12/2015 1.82

3/1/2016 1.695

10/1/2016 1.665

17/1/2016 1.63

24/1/2016 1.62

31/1/2016 1.61

7/2/2016 1.58

14/2/2016 1.585

21/2/2016 1.61

28/2/2016 1.755

6/3/2016 1.74

13/3/2016 1.745

20/3/2016 1.74

27/3/2016 1.69

3/4/2016 1.655

10/4/2016 1.72

17/4/2016 1.725

24/4/2016 1.65

1/5/2016 1.595

8/5/2016 1.6

15/5/2016 1.705

22/5/2016 1.815

29/5/2016 1.835

5/6/2016 1.86

12/6/2016 1.815

19/6/2016 1.855

26/6/2016 1.88

3/7/2016 1.91

10/7/2016 1.885

17/7/2016 1.88

24/7/2016 1.91

31/7/2016 1.83

7/8/2016 1.85

14/8/2016 1.96

21/8/2016 2.06

28/8/2016 2.07

4/9/2016 2.09

11/9/2016 2.03

18/9/2016 2.04

25/9/2016 2.06

2/10/2016 2.05

9/10/2016 2.07

16/10/2016 2.06

23/10/2016 2.1

30/10/2016 2.08

6/11/2016 2.1

13/11/2016 1.95

20/11/2016 1.96

27/11/2016 2.02

4/12/2016 2.07

11/12/2016 2.13

18/12/2016 2

25/12/2016 1.97

1/1/2017 2

8/1/2017 2.06

15/1/2017 1.995

22/1/2017 2

29/1/2017 2.01

5/2/2017 2.02

12/2/2017 2.1

19/2/2017 2.06

26/2/2017 2

5/3/2017 1.975

12/3/2017 1.93

19/3/2017 1.86

26/3/2017 1.92

2/4/2017 1.955

9/4/2017 1.91

16/4/2017 1.91

23/4/2017 1.91

30/4/2017 1.9

7/5/2017 1.96

14/5/2017 1.995

21/5/2017 2.07

28/5/2017 2.02

4/6/2017 2.03

11/6/2017 2

18/6/2017 1.96

25/6/2017 1.95

2/7/2017 1.915

9/7/2017 1.94

16/7/2017 1.945

23/7/2017 1.93

30/7/2017 1.96

6/8/2017 1.95

13/8/2017 2.02

20/8/2017 2.1

27/8/2017 2.06

3/9/2017 2.02

10/9/2017 2.01

17/9/2017 2.01

24/9/2017 2.02

1/10/2017 2.14

8/10/2017 2.22

15/10/2017 2.29

22/10/2017 2.35

29/10/2017 2.36

5/11/2017 2.33

12/11/2017 2.19

19/11/2017 2.2

26/11/2017 2.25

3/12/2017 2.19

10/12/2017 2.16

17/12/2017 2.07

24/12/2017 2.03

31/12/2017 2.04

7/1/2018 2.09

14/1/2018 2.11

21/1/2018 2.19

28/1/2018 2.22

4/2/2018 2.08

11/2/2018 2.17

18/2/2018 2.26

25/2/2018 2.23

4/3/2018 2.4

11/3/2018 2.34

18/3/2018 2.37

25/3/2018 2.34

1/4/2018 2.34

8/4/2018 2.35

15/4/2018 2.29

22/4/2018 2.28

29/4/2018 2.18

6/5/2018 2.3

13/5/2018 2.29

20/5/2018 2.28

27/5/2018 2.19

3/6/2018 2.21

10/6/2018 2.17

Expert Solution

OLIM	Frequency	Probability
2.36	2	0.00956938
2.46	3	0.01435407
2.52	1	0.00478469
2.44	1	0.00478469
2.54	3	0.01435407
2.42	1	0.00478469
2.53	1	0.00478469
2.65	1	0.00478469
2.64	1	0.00478469
2.56	1	0.00478469
2.4	2	0.00956938
2.3	2	0.00956938
2.2	2	0.00956938
2.08	3	0.01435407
2.06	7	0.03349282
2.13	2	0.00956938
2.11	3	0.01435407
2.25	2	0.00956938
2.24	1	0.00478469
2.16	2	0.00956938
2.09	4	0.01913876
2.04	5	0.02392344
2.01	5	0.02392344
1.96	6	0.02870813
2	17	0.08133971
1.975	3	0.01435407
2.03	5	0.02392344
1.98	4	0.01913876
1.99	2	0.00956938
2.05	2	0.00956938
2.02	7	0.03349282
1.985	2	0.00956938
1.88	3	0.01435407
1.885	3	0.01435407
1.865	2	0.00956938
1.825	1	0.00478469
1.79	1	0.00478469
1.78	1	0.00478469
1.84	1	0.00478469
1.8	2	0.00956938
1.755	2	0.00956938
2.07	6	0.02870813
1.995	3	0.01435407
1.915	2	0.00956938
1.845	1	0.00478469
1.82	2	0.00956938
1.805	1	0.00478469
1.77	1	0.00478469
1.81	1	0.00478469
1.835	2	0.00956938
1.695	1	0.00478469
1.665	1	0.00478469
1.63	1	0.00478469
1.62	1	0.00478469
1.61	2	0.00956938
1.58	1	0.00478469
1.585	1	0.00478469
1.74	2	0.00956938
1.745	1	0.00478469
1.69	1	0.00478469
1.655	1	0.00478469
1.72	1	0.00478469
1.725	1	0.00478469
1.65	1	0.00478469
1.595	1	0.00478469
1.6	1	0.00478469
1.705	1	0.00478469
1.815	2	0.00956938
1.86	2	0.00956938
1.855	1	0.00478469
1.91	5	0.02392344
1.83	1	0.00478469
1.85	1	0.00478469
2.1	4	0.01913876
1.95	3	0.01435407
1.97	1	0.00478469
1.93	2	0.00956938
1.92	1	0.00478469
1.955	1	0.00478469
1.9	1	0.00478469
1.94	1	0.00478469
1.945	1	0.00478469
2.14	1	0.00478469
2.22	2	0.00956938
2.29	3	0.01435407
2.35	2	0.00956938
2.33	1	0.00478469
2.19	4	0.01913876
2.17	2	0.00956938
2.26	1	0.00478469
2.23	1	0.00478469
2.34	3	0.01435407
2.37	1	0.00478469
2.28	2	0.00956938
2.18	1	0.00478469
2.21	1	0.00478469
Sum	209	1

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