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In: Finance

Louis is analyzing a project and has determined that the initial cost will be $1,380,000 and...

Louis is analyzing a project and has determined that the initial cost will be $1,380,000 and the required rate of return needs to be 16 percent. The project has a 60 percent chance of success and a 40 percent chance of failure. If the project fails, it will generate an annual after-tax cash flow of $242,000. If the project succeeds, the annual after-tax cash flow will be $666,000. He has further determined that if the project fails, he will shut it down after the first year and sell the equipment for the after-tax salvage value of $420,000. If however, the project is a success, he can expand it with no additional investment and increase the after-tax cash flow to $697,000 a year for Years 2-5. At the end of Year 5, the project would be terminated and have no salvage value. What is the expected net present value of this project at Time 0?

$171,480.74

$183,667.21

$201,500.99

$227,615.75

$239,518.20

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Expert Solution

Please provide rating..

NPV if project success
Year Cash flow PVIF @ 16% Present value
0 -1,380,000     1.0000       (1,380,000.00)
1 666000     0.8621            574,137.93
2 697000     0.7432            517,984.54
3 697000     0.6407            446,538.40
4 697000     0.5523            384,946.90
5 697000     0.4761            331,850.77
           875,458.54
NPV (Success) =            875,458.54
NPV if project fail
Year Cash flow Salvage value Total cash flow PVIF @ 16% Present value
0 -1,380,000 -1,380,000     1.0000 (1,380,000.00)
1 242000 242,000     0.8621        208,620.69
1 420000 420,000     0.8621        362,068.97
     (809,310.34)
NPV (Failure) =      (809,310.34)
Therefore NPV of the project = Probability of success*NPV of success + probability of failure * NPV of failure
NPV = =875458.54*.6-809310.34*.4
           201,550.99
Therefore correct answer =            201,550.99

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