Question

Pandemic is an outbreak of a disease prevalent over a country or the world. If left unchecked, the number of infected population C is growing at an exponential rate and can be modeled as a function of time T as C=2?, where T is measured in days. 1) What is the infected population after ten days if the pandemic is left unchecked? After 20 days? 2) If left uncheck, how many days will it take for the pandemic to infect the whole world 7 billion? 3) Refer to the websites and compare the model forecast with real world data. Does this model predict well the trend of infected population (confirmed cases) during the COVID-19 outbreak? 4） Based on this exponential growth model, what factors are missing in predicting the trends in different countries or regions? Do all countries follow the same trend? Explain. 5) According the official data, both total COVID-19 confirmed cases and total deaths double every seven days. What is the average daily growth rate and death rate of the pandemic in the world? 6) To slow down the pandemic, the most effective way in the short run is to quarantine and testing, which must be enforced by the public policy. What are the economic benefits and costs of these measures to individual and to other social members? How to measure these benefits and costs? 7) To eradicate the most lethal virus in human history, the most effective way in the long run is to vaccine. What are the economic benefits and costs of vaccination to individual and to other social members? Will you expect a worldwide COVID vaccination? Explain.

Answer 1

According to the modeled provided C=2T where T is measured in Day whihc is time , the number of infected population after ten days starting from day 1 will be 20 and after 20 it will be 40 infected people and so on . This is only if it is left uncheked. Now to infect the whole world accroding to this model of C=2T it will take obviously 3.5 billion days to infect the whole world.The trend of this model is drawn below in an excel sheet to see the trend according to the model and how it varies and how much time it will take .

This model does not represent the real world data trend at all. Because in real world data let us pick one country say United states , the number of cases statrted from 12 in feb 15 then it goes to 29 on feb 22 and 54 on feb 29 , so by observing the trend of this we could say that the infected peole are double in every 7 day in the initial phase but as the number of day is increasing it is rapidly increasing at certain unknown trend or variation .The modeled provided above thereore does not have any match with the real world data .There are many factor missing in the model as The test is not being carried out in developing countries like India, nepal , bangaldesh , pakistan ,srilanka , etc and a lot more .whihc is the main worry for the covid outbreak . The testing rate is another factor , as the number of infected peopl;e is not revealed by some countries and the official data is not upto the mark to make any observation accurately . No all countries do not follow the samwe trend as some countries depeneidng on the peole with travell history and other background of area like tourist hotspot has large covid 19 cases and some countries have very less cases so the countries does not follow the same trend .The average death rate due to cpovid 19 pandemic is 0.1 % in the world depending on new confirmed cases .The short run solution to this big pandemic is quarantine and testing whihcis still not being done in many countries and it is creating more dangerous effectg in the upcoming time .The benfit of these measure of testing and quarantine is it will creat help in saving more life of all types of peole whether old age , young and chioldrens from this pandemic , benefit of work from home and providing essential services to the home of financially unstable peole . COVID 19 Vaccination to the whole world is a good way option for the long run as it will save the death happened in this current situation and will create immunity for the coming generation also .It is a good solution but it will take time to make the vaccine available for the entire world .

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