Question

In: Economics

Provide a forecast, Recommendation and Expectation on the recovery of Egypt, Niger, Lesotho, Mauritius, Tanzania countries...

Provide a forecast, Recommendation and Expectation on the recovery of Egypt, Niger, Lesotho, Mauritius, Tanzania countries economy.

Provide a forecast, recommendation, expectations on the recovery of Egypt, Niger, Tanzania, Mauritius, Lesotho countries economy that is affected due to covid -19.

Solutions

Expert Solution

Forecast on the recovery of Egypt is that it is heavily dependent on travel and hospitality industry, thus it will take time for Egypt to recover in the coming months as overseas citizens have also decreased their capital outflows to Egypt because of liquidity constraints. Thus recommendation could be that the economy should focus on its essential sectors such as agriculture, as exports would be severely impacted, create demand locally so that local consumers benefit. Now in terms of expectation on recovery as the entire world economy is in downturn, it will take Egypt much longer to recover.

In the case of Niger, the cases have not spread as drastically, thus the economy has only been impacted because of the curfew imposed, and shortened work hours, this will pick the economy back on track much faster, because its growth has not been dented as excessively, with much of the curfew already lifted, the recommendation could be that the economy take the advantage of domestic demand and export goods and services as it doesn't have many cases. The expectation is that the economic growth could stay around for the coming months, with slight deviation for the month of April and May.

Even Lesotho has had only 4 cases with reopening of the economy for nonessential services as well, thus the recovery will be quick, with dent for only the months of April and May. Except severe impact on the tourism and other external factor related dependency, domestic growth will pickup as most of the sectors have opened up. Recommendation would be to focus on domestic economy and explore economies of scale through export orientation as it could help supply goods to other severely impacted countries. Expectation on the recovery is quick and easy with limited impact.

With resumption in economic activity in Mauritius, the forecast on the recovery will be favourable, except for a dent on the tourism industry. With impact only for the month of April and May, recommendation on the recovery could be increase in investments and government expenditure and bringing demand back on track as most of the sectors have been reopened. While expectation on the recovery is that till September growth might be stagnant as it is heavily dependent on the tourism sector and countries have still not opened borders.

Forecast on the recovery for Tanzania is that the country has completely reopened with international flights also in place, this could speedtrack the growth of Tanzania, thereby seeing growth pick up for the month of June and further picking up thereafter. The recommendation of recovery is that the country should increase production levels so that it could gain from export of key commodities and expectation of recovery is that the growth will be fast as the country is completely open.


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