In: Finance
The following data represent the probability distribution of the holding period returns for an investment in Lazy Rapids Kayaks (LARK) stock.
State of the Economy | Scenario #(s) | Probability, p(s) | HPR |
Boom | 1 | 0.328 | 30.00% |
Normal growth | 2 | 0.402 | 9.40% |
Recession | 3 | 0.27 | -18.30% |
a. What is the expected return on LARK? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)
Expected return %
b. What is the standard deviation of the returns on LARK? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)
Standard deviation %
A) Expected return = probability × return
= 0.328 × 30% + 0.402 × 9.40% + 0.27 × (-18.30%)
= 9.84% + 3.78% - 4.94%
= 8.68%
B) Standard deviation= √ probability (return - expected return)^2
= √ 0.328 × (0.30 - 0.0868)^2 + 0.402 (0.0940 - 0.0868)^2 + 0.27 (-0.1830 - 0.0868)^2
= √ 0.328 (0.2132)^2 + 0.402 (0.0072)^2 + 0.27 (-0.2698)^2
= √ 0.328 (0.04545) + 0.402 ( 0.00005184) + 0.27 (0.07279)
= √ 0.01491 + 0.00002084 + 0.01965
= √ 0.034581
= 0.1860 or 18.60%