In: Operations Management
Three recent college graduates have formed a partnership and
have opened an advertising firm. Their first project consists of
activities listed in the following table. Use Table B.
TIME IN DAYS | |||||||||
Activity |
Immediate Predecessor |
Optimistic | Most Likely | Pessimistic | |||||
A | — | 5 | 6 | 7 | |||||
B | — | 8 | 8 | 11 | |||||
C | A | 6 | 8 | 11 | |||||
D | — | 9 | 12 | 15 | |||||
E | C | 5 | 6 | 9 | |||||
F | D | 5 | 6 | 7 | |||||
G | F | 2 | 3 | 7 | |||||
H | B | 4 | 4 | 5 | |||||
I | H | 5 | 7 | 8 | |||||
End | E, G, I | ||||||||
b.What is the probability that the project can be
completed in 24 days or less? In 21 days or less? (Round
your te and z values to 2 decimal places and "Standard
deviation" to 3 decimal places. Round your final answers to 4
decimal places.)
Days | Probability | |
24 days or less | 0.9685 | |
21 days or less | ||
c. Suppose it is now the end of the seventh day and that
activities A and B have been completed while activity D is 50
percent completed. Time estimates for the completion of activity D
are 5, 6, and 7. Activities C and H are ready to begin. Determine
the probability of finishing the project by day 24 and the
probability of finishing by day 21. (Round your
intermediate calculations to 3 decimal places and final answers to
4 decimal places.)
Probability | ||
Day 24 | ||
Day 21 | 0.0179 | |