In: Statistics and Probability
USING EXCEL ONLY: You sell hot dogs at the local high school football games. For the upcoming championship game, you need to decide how many hot dogs to order (275, 300, or 325) at a cost of $0.25 each. Hot dogs sell for $1 each. Any unsold hot dogs are thrown away. If the game is interesting, you think that fewer people will visit your stand and that demand will be normally distributed with a mean of 240 with a std dev of 40. However, if the game is a blowout, you expect more people to come to your stand; demand would be normally distributed with a mean of 290 with a std dev of 30. Knowing the two teams, you estimate there being a 40% chance of a blowout. Set up a simulation model for this championship game to determine the expected profit and the expected % of unsold hot dogs for each choice of order size. Replicate these values 300 times to help make your decision of how many hot dogs to order.
non blowout | blowout | expected demand | cost | order | revenue | expected profit | %unsold |
302.8684643 | 297.8590727 | 299.8628293 | 74.96570733 | 300 | 300 | 225.0342927 | 0.0% |
210.2701628 | 347.4882252 | 292.6010002 | 73.15025006 | 300 | 300 | 226.8497499 | 2.5% |
192.6627108 | 308.8137123 | 262.3533117 | 65.58832793 | 275 | 275 | 209.4116721 | 4.8% |
247.9981381 | 274.4431548 | 263.8651481 | 65.96628703 | 275 | 275 | 209.033713 | 4.2% |
194.2213764 | 279.5089255 | 245.3939059 | 61.34847646 | 250 | 250 | 188.6515235 | 1.9% |
199.1480171 | 262.5227743 | 237.1728714 | 59.29321785 | 250 | 250 | 190.7067821 | 5.4% |
235.5979643 | 268.8307719 | 255.5376488 | 63.88441221 | 275 | 275 | 211.1155878 | 7.6% |
191.8023106 | 297.1739151 | 255.0252733 | 63.75631833 | 275 | 275 | 211.2436817 | 7.8% |
222.8226856 | 241.0018533 | 233.7301862 | 58.43254656 | 250 | 250 | 191.5674534 | 7.0% |
221.6566341 | 336.044069 | 290.289095 | 72.57227376 | 300 | 300 | 227.4277262 | 3.3% |
292.5330758 | 274.081074 | 281.4618747 | 70.36546868 | 300 | 300 | 229.6345313 | 6.6% |
276.8971418 | 314.5988905 | 299.518191 | 74.87954776 | 300 | 300 | 225.1204522 | 0.2% |
216.9460447 | 263.4828218 | 244.868111 | 61.21702775 | 250 | 250 | 188.7829723 | 2.1% |
277.8898001 | 239.4231154 | 254.8097893 | 63.70244731 | 275 | 275 | 211.2975527 | 7.9% |
248.6815072 | 243.94965 | 245.8423929 | 61.46059822 | 250 | 250 | 188.5394018 | 1.7% |
240.0302719 | 254.5767665 | 248.7581687 | 62.18954216 | 250 | 250 | 187.8104578 | 0.5% |
223.6343049 | 304.0008926 | 271.8542575 | 67.96356439 | 275 | 275 | 207.0364356 | 1.2% |
193.9375515 | 344.2126914 | 284.1026354 | 71.02565885 | 300 | 300 | 228.9743411 | 5.6% |
277.8828872 | 244.1091852 | 257.618666 | 64.4046665 | 275 | 275 | 210.5953335 | 6.7% |
171.8175336 | 279.2008157 | 236.2475028 | 59.06187571 | 250 | 250 | 190.9381243 | 5.8% |
251.9793729 | 250.5274294 | 251.1082068 | 62.7770517 | 275 | 275 | 212.2229483 | 9.5% |
152.2491133 | 315.3241377 | 250.094128 | 62.52353199 | 275 | 275 | 212.476468 | 10.0% |
181.6911794 | 312.8739569 | 260.4008459 | 65.10021148 | 275 | 275 | 209.8997885 | 5.6% |
169.9688663 | 274.5210221 | 232.7001598 | 58.17503995 | 250 | 250 | 191.82496 | 7.4% |
234.5494189 | 306.6563454 | 277.8135748 | 69.45339369 | 300 | 300 | 230.5466063 | 8.0% |
212.169105 | 327.9103559 | 281.6138556 | 70.40346389 | 300 | 300 | 229.5965361 | 6.5% |
253.6427448 | 270.962241 | 264.0344425 | 66.00861063 | 275 | 275 | 208.9913894 | 4.2% |
218.2668599 | 313.4532692 | 275.3787055 | 68.84467637 | 300 | 300 | 231.1553236 | 8.9% |
211.7034616 | 269.9727689 | 246.665046 | 61.6662615 | 250 | 250 | 188.3337385 | 1.4% |
155.5115428 | 288.1603898 | 235.100851 | 58.77521274 | 250 | 250 | 191.2247873 | 6.3% |
262.4097453 | 315.5132435 | 294.2718442 | 73.56796106 | 300 | 300 | 226.4320389 | 1.9% |
224.0481377 | 298.8383837 | 268.9222853 | 67.23057133 | 275 | 275 | 207.7694287 | 2.3% |
181.8878267 | 346.5303247 | 280.6733255 | 70.16833137 | 300 | 300 | 229.8316686 | 6.9% |
254.6485377 | 319.5689746 | 293.6007999 | 73.40019997 | 300 | 300 | 226.5998 | 2.2% |
237.859082 | 277.859878 | 261.8595596 | 65.4648899 | 275 | 275 | 209.5351101 | 5.0% |
185.6953867 | 236.4209992 | 216.1307542 | 54.03268855 | 250 | 250 | 195.9673114 | 15.7% |
284.7469606 | 309.3394161 | 299.5024339 | 74.87560848 | 300 | 300 | 225.1243915 | 0.2% |
336.4696291 | 317.9452138 | 325.35498 | 81.33874499 | 300 | 300 | 218.661255 | -7.8% |
242.3507182 | 295.4157222 | 274.1897206 | 68.54743014 | 275 | 275 | 206.4525699 | 0.3% |
164.9275614 | 264.4441352 | 224.6375057 | 56.15937642 | 250 | 250 | 193.8406236 | 11.3% |
204.1772109 | 319.8507818 | 273.5813535 | 68.39533837 | 275 | 275 | 206.6046616 | 0.5% |
265.2852451 | 319.9188862 | 298.0654297 | 74.51635744 | 300 | 300 | 225.4836426 | 0.6% |
244.2364022 | 328.9883671 | 295.0875811 | 73.77189528 | 300 | 300 | 226.2281047 | 1.7% |
312.1740646 | 350.7879079 | 335.3423706 | 83.83559264 | 300 | 300 | 216.1644074 | -10.5% |
222.1385061 | 347.2437921 | 297.2016777 | 74.30041942 | 300 | 300 | 225.6995806 | 0.9% |
201.9798436 | 283.307207 | 250.7762617 | 62.69406542 | 275 | 275 | 212.3059346 | 9.7% |
220.8648214 | 305.9085163 | 271.8910383 | 67.97275958 | 275 | 275 | 207.0272404 | 1.1% |
233.9216416 | 287.3745924 | 265.9934121 | 66.49835302 | 275 | 275 | 208.501647 | 3.4% |
245.9151063 | 287.2550018 | 270.7190436 | 67.6797609 | 275 | 275 | 207.3202391 | 1.6% |
224.4294326 | 274.733022 | 254.6115862 | 63.65289655 | 275 | 275 | 211.3471034 | 8.0% |
211.8585541 | 285.712079 | 256.170669 | 64.04266725 | 275 | 275 | 210.9573327 | 7.4% |
295.4045326 | 256.0067652 | 271.7658722 | 67.94146804 | 275 | 275 | 207.058532 | 1.2% |
201.9233204 | 270.9144231 | 243.317982 | 60.8294955 | 250 | 250 | 189.1705045 | 2.7% |
297.1285999 | 303.4320664 | 300.9106798 | 75.22766996 | 300 | 300 | 224.77233 | -0.3% |
240.8855687 | 314.8843477 | 285.2848361 | 71.32120903 | 300 | 300 | 228.678791 | 5.2% |
283.486702 | 285.6965244 | 284.8125955 | 71.20314886 | 300 | 300 | 228.7968511 | 5.3% |
279.8722655 | 300.8432885 | 292.4548793 | 73.11371982 | 300 | 300 | 226.8862802 | 2.6% |
231.5149093 | 252.3921785 | 244.0412708 | 61.0103177 | 250 | 250 | 188.9896823 | 2.4% |
275.4031546 | 285.3517548 | 281.3723147 | 70.34307869 | 300 | 300 | 229.6569213 | 6.6% |
195.3968443 | 314.5071321 | 266.863017 | 66.71575424 | 275 | 275 | 208.2842458 | 3.0% |
174.0736445 | 240.1984934 | 213.7485538 | 53.43713846 | 250 | 250 | 196.5628615 | 17.0% |
233.1716259 | 267.011035 | 253.4752714 | 63.36881784 | 275 | 275 | 211.6311822 | 8.5% |
216.0678642 | 254.4637021 | 239.1053669 | 59.77634173 | 250 | 250 | 190.2236583 | 4.6% |
203.8401449 | 298.0555726 | 260.3694015 | 65.09235038 | 275 | 275 | 209.9076496 | 5.6% |
195.1073433 | 277.5744711 | 244.58762 | 61.14690499 | 250 | 250 | 188.853095 | 2.2% |
244.2324667 | 300.1505658 | 277.7833262 | 69.44583154 | 300 | 300 | 230.5541685 | 8.0% |
258.9048646 | 285.4931619 | 274.857843 | 68.71446074 | 275 | 275 | 206.2855393 | 0.1% |
122.9047434 | 291.2081862 | 223.8868091 | 55.97170227 | 250 | 250 | 194.0282977 | 11.7% |
259.5938791 | 258.397976 | 258.8763373 | 64.71908432 | 275 | 275 | 210.2809157 | 6.2% |
292.9038914 | 302.0356957 | 298.382974 | 74.5957435 | 300 | 300 | 225.4042565 | 0.5% |
226.976912 | 354.8478409 | 303.6994694 | 75.92486734 | 300 | 300 | 224.0751327 | -1.2% |
234.6540589 | 319.5149851 | 285.5706146 | 71.39265365 | 300 | 300 | 228.6073463 | 5.1% |
260.12751 | 249.1328105 | 253.5306903 | 63.38267257 | 275 | 275 | 211.6173274 | 8.5% |
168.1777503 | 327.4304239 | 263.7293544 | 65.93233861 | 275 | 275 | 209.0676614 | 4.3% |
270.025733 | 290.5286283 | 282.3274702 | 70.58186754 | 300 | 300 | 229.4181325 | 6.3% |
226.6951883 | 296.3334681 | 268.4781562 | 67.11953906 | 275 | 275 | 207.8804609 | 2.4% |
282.2517378 | 264.6559578 | 271.6942698 | 67.92356745 | 275 | 275 | 207.0764325 | 1.2% |
216.2057952 | 297.1899955 | 264.7963154 | 66.19907885 | 275 | 275 | 208.8009212 | 3.9% |
200.6110639 | 273.362106 | 244.2616891 | 61.06542229 | 250 | 250 | 188.9345777 | 2.3% |
184.3379359 | 316.0948982 | 263.3921133 | 65.84802832 | 275 | 275 | 209.1519717 | 4.4% |
287.4109592 | 293.543079 | 291.0902311 | 72.77255777 | 300 | 300 | 227.2274422 | 3.1% |
234.6123631 | 260.7801309 | 250.3130238 | 62.57825595 | 275 | 275 | 212.421744 | 9.9% |
238.8455326 | 259.9866053 | 251.5301762 | 62.88254405 | 275 | 275 | 212.117456 | 9.3% |
334.9651693 | 303.4856205 | 316.07744 | 79.01936 | 300 | 300 | 220.98064 | -5.1% |
285.084862 | 295.3936969 | 291.270163 | 72.81754074 | 300 | 300 | 227.1824593 | 3.0% |
160.4575326 | 259.6139714 | 219.9513959 | 54.98784897 | 250 | 250 | 195.012151 | 13.7% |
231.4807628 | 319.5888154 | 284.3455944 | 71.08639859 | 300 | 300 | 228.9136014 | 5.5% |
269.5723334 | 317.9107187 | 298.5753645 | 74.64384114 | 300 | 300 | 225.3561589 | 0.5% |
217.3878221 | 301.8685851 | 268.0762799 | 67.01906998 | 275 | 275 | 207.98093 | 2.6% |
212.7318441 | 302.9239753 | 266.8471228 | 66.7117807 | 275 | 275 | 208.2882193 | 3.1% |
168.4927193 | 209.6054725 | 193.1603712 | 48.2900928 | 250 | 250 | 201.7099072 | 29.4% |
230.8593493 | 262.3975856 | 249.7822911 | 62.44557277 | 250 | 250 | 187.5544272 | 0.1% |
270.364414 | 322.906794 | 301.889842 | 75.4724605 | 300 | 300 | 224.5275395 | -0.6% |
242.7544458 | 297.0896285 | 275.3555554 | 68.83888885 | 300 | 300 | 231.1611111 | 9.0% |
229.2099099 | 262.3592581 | 249.0995188 | 62.27487971 | 250 | 250 | 187.7251203 | 0.4% |
278.3027417 | 283.1717272 | 281.224133 | 70.30603324 | 300 | 300 | 229.6939668 | 6.7% |
213.0020467 | 312.5715827 | 272.7437683 | 68.18594207 | 275 | 275 | 206.8140579 | 0.8% |
206.2071712 | 294.7645293 | 259.3415861 | 64.83539652 | 275 | 275 | 210.1646035 | 6.0% |
263.4222048 | 243.8098116 | 251.6547689 | 62.91369223 | 275 | 275 | 212.0863078 | 9.3% |
221.8222074 | 306.1326757 | 272.4084884 | 68.1021221 | 275 | 275 | 206.8978779 | 1.0% |
166.4942805 | 289.6882204 | 240.4106445 | 60.10266112 | 250 | 250 | 189.8973389 | 4.0% |
212.9527811 | 308.6758749 | 270.3866373 | 67.59665933 | 275 | 275 | 207.4033407 | 1.7% |
179.262271 | 300.6132008 | 252.0728289 | 63.01820722 | 275 | 275 | 211.9817928 | 9.1% |
274.2026785 | 293.7684342 | 285.9421319 | 71.48553298 | 300 | 300 | 228.514467 | 4.9% |
194.1385658 | 268.48338 | 238.7454543 | 59.68636357 | 250 | 250 | 190.3136364 | 4.7% |
271.0335733 | 322.2478527 | 301.7621409 | 75.44053524 | 300 | 300 | 224.5594648 | -0.6% |
216.2311681 | 278.6975202 | 253.7109793 | 63.42774484 | 275 | 275 | 211.5722552 | 8.4% |
231.7165325 | 300.222098 | 272.8198718 | 68.20496794 | 275 | 275 | 206.7950321 | 0.8% |
247.0614002 | 289.9569074 | 272.7987045 | 68.19967614 | 275 | 275 | 206.8003239 | 0.8% |
228.3195114 | 263.0245634 | 249.1425426 | 62.28563565 | 250 | 250 | 187.7143643 | 0.3% |
251.6887368 | 310.2898698 | 286.8494166 | 71.71235415 | 300 | 300 | 228.2876458 | 4.6% |
199.2719278 | 292.0527453 | 254.9404183 | 63.73510457 | 275 | 275 | 211.2648954 | 7.9% |
225.820447 | 287.4126806 | 262.7757871 | 65.69394679 | 275 | 275 | 209.3060532 | 4.7% |
221.8606951 | 277.6896742 | 255.3580826 | 63.83952064 | 275 | 275 | 211.1604794 | 7.7% |
308.2739748 | 288.4539169 | 296.38194 | 74.09548501 | 300 | 300 | 225.904515 | 1.2% |
196.5787177 | 281.5542598 | 247.5640429 | 61.89101074 | 250 | 250 | 188.1089893 | 1.0% |
213.2021158 | 249.5959584 | 235.0384213 | 58.75960533 | 250 | 250 | 191.2403947 | 6.4% |
229.1938531 | 318.6154731 | 282.8468251 | 70.71170628 | 300 | 300 | 229.2882937 | 6.1% |
260.1279296 | 270.4348149 | 266.3120608 | 66.57801519 | 275 | 275 | 208.4219848 | 3.3% |
257.3658747 | 247.5716257 | 251.4893253 | 62.87233132 | 275 | 275 | 212.1276687 | 9.3% |
153.1313516 | 306.8501763 | 245.3626464 | 61.34066161 | 250 | 250 | 188.6593384 | 1.9% |
231.9474003 | 289.9401792 | 266.7430676 | 66.68576691 | 275 | 275 | 208.3142331 | 3.1% |
193.1960708 | 266.2886168 | 237.0515984 | 59.26289961 | 250 | 250 | 190.7371004 | 5.5% |
251.3277734 | 241.9770637 | 245.7173476 | 61.4293369 | 250 | 250 | 188.5706631 | 1.7% |
249.7589775 | 313.4471547 | 287.9718838 | 71.99297095 | 300 | 300 | 228.007029 | 4.2% |
267.8959643 | 291.2345071 | 281.89909 | 70.47477249 | 300 | 300 | 229.5252275 | 6.4% |
293.0400877 | 287.7534274 | 289.8680915 | 72.46702289 | 300 | 300 | 227.5329771 | 3.5% |
277.2038682 | 339.3676145 | 314.502116 | 78.62552899 | 300 | 300 | 221.374471 | -4.6% |
300.9273661 | 282.1781298 | 289.6778243 | 72.41945608 | 300 | 300 | 227.5805439 | 3.6% |
324.769048 | 310.095989 | 315.9652126 | 78.99130315 | 300 | 300 | 221.0086968 | -5.1% |
273.0129903 | 305.5575902 | 292.5397502 | 73.13493756 | 300 | 300 | 226.8650624 | 2.6% |
292.2604116 | 288.1968117 | 289.8222516 | 72.45556291 | 300 | 300 | 227.5444371 | 3.5% |
322.1910898 | 322.7955501 | 322.553766 | 80.63844149 | 300 | 300 | 219.3615585 | -7.0% |
246.9852685 | 327.6361048 | 295.3757703 | 73.84394258 | 300 | 300 | 226.1560574 | 1.6% |
310.2940609 | 305.0830328 | 307.167444 | 76.79186101 | 300 | 300 | 223.208139 | -2.3% |
217.5695047 | 271.9434025 | 250.1938434 | 62.54846085 | 275 | 275 | 212.4515392 | 9.9% |
275.7578159 | 272.7456911 | 273.9505411 | 68.48763526 | 275 | 275 | 206.5123647 | 0.4% |
238.5937392 | 336.5503114 | 297.3676825 | 74.34192063 | 300 | 300 | 225.6580794 | 0.9% |
292.3444824 | 274.9345853 | 281.8985441 | 70.47463603 | 300 | 300 | 229.525364 | 6.4% |
271.6894568 | 298.1562944 | 287.5695594 | 71.89238984 | 300 | 300 | 228.1076102 | 4.3% |
208.9137967 | 292.9904063 | 259.3597625 | 64.83994062 | 275 | 275 | 210.1600594 | 6.0% |
245.8133573 | 208.1535439 | 223.2174693 | 55.80436731 | 250 | 250 | 194.1956327 | 12.0% |
175.1128676 | 318.872672 | 261.3687502 | 65.34218756 | 275 | 275 | 209.6578124 | 5.2% |
238.6317671 | 337.2381775 | 297.7956133 | 74.44890333 | 300 | 300 | 225.5510967 | 0.7% |
198.2549266 | 262.8402002 | 237.0060908 | 59.25152269 | 250 | 250 | 190.7484773 | 5.5% |
278.8937985 | 275.2648704 | 276.7164417 | 69.17911042 | 300 | 300 | 230.8208896 | 8.4% |
283.9136143 | 284.5185971 | 284.276604 | 71.06915099 | 300 | 300 | 228.930849 | 5.5% |
202.5981703 | 316.0461555 | 270.6669614 | 67.66674035 | 275 | 275 | 207.3332596 | 1.6% |
211.1394132 | 270.2751476 | 246.6208539 | 61.65521347 | 250 | 250 | 188.3447865 | 1.4% |
240.1893534 | 298.0700022 | 274.9177427 | 68.72943567 | 275 | 275 | 206.2705643 | 0.0% |
174.5891736 | 294.2155644 | 246.3650081 | 61.59125203 | 250 | 250 | 188.408748 | 1.5% |
296.5758707 | 313.0621839 | 306.4676586 | 76.61691465 | 300 | 300 | 223.3830853 | -2.1% |
276.0725692 | 271.2388774 | 273.1723541 | 68.29308852 | 275 | 275 | 206.7069115 | 0.7% |
219.5587876 | 286.4111012 | 259.6701758 | 64.91754394 | 275 | 275 | 210.0824561 | 5.9% |
242.4128833 | 251.1434894 | 247.651247 | 61.91281174 | 250 | 250 | 188.0871883 | 0.9% |
265.3650893 | 309.2718836 | 291.7091658 | 72.92729146 | 300 | 300 | 227.0727085 | 2.8% |
209.7599163 | 344.3971558 | 290.54226 | 72.635565 | 300 | 300 | 227.364435 | 3.3% |
258.1637371 | 262.5307752 | 260.78396 | 65.19598999 | 275 | 275 | 209.80401 | 5.5% |
239.2494797 | 272.697406 | 259.3182355 | 64.82955887 | 275 | 275 | 210.1704411 | 6.0% |
282.4757123 | 245.9440466 | 260.5567129 | 65.13917823 | 275 | 275 | 209.8608218 | 5.5% |
195.7523317 | 276.5351862 | 244.2220444 | 61.0555111 | 250 | 250 | 188.9444889 | 2.4% |
277.2426877 | 282.5277954 | 280.4137523 | 70.10343807 | 300 | 300 | 229.8965619 | 7.0% |
274.3305214 | 285.8087795 | 281.2174763 | 70.30436907 | 300 | 300 | 229.6956309 | 6.7% |
195.5932241 | 371.0243789 | 300.851917 | 75.21297925 | 300 | 300 | 224.7870208 | -0.3% |
205.0638312 | 297.6343764 | 260.6061583 | 65.15153959 | 275 | 275 | 209.8484604 | 5.5% |
269.8572125 | 363.3785663 | 325.9700248 | 81.4925062 | 300 | 300 | 218.5074938 | -8.0% |
273.1328484 | 240.3629106 | 253.4708857 | 63.36772143 | 275 | 275 | 211.6322786 | 8.5% |
162.7152934 | 270.3389953 | 227.2895145 | 56.82237863 | 250 | 250 | 193.1776214 | 10.0% |
244.2697812 | 284.7110337 | 268.5345327 | 67.13363318 | 275 | 275 | 207.8663668 | 2.4% |
265.7847962 | 289.8360844 | 280.2155691 | 70.05389229 | 300 | 300 | 229.9461077 | 7.1% |
191.541899 | 313.6941692 | 264.8332611 | 66.20831528 | 275 | 275 | 208.7916847 | 3.8% |
152.2111616 | 233.3188812 | 200.8757934 | 50.21894834 | 250 | 250 | 199.7810517 | 24.5% |
245.5609564 | 301.4825604 | 279.1139188 | 69.77847971 | 300 | 300 | 230.2215203 | 7.5% |
291.2944267 | 268.8682418 | 277.8387158 | 69.45967895 | 300 | 300 | 230.5403211 | 8.0% |
206.5680549 | 327.4627055 | 279.1048453 | 69.77621131 | 300 | 300 | 230.2237887 | 7.5% |
214.9749697 | 307.3007789 | 270.3704552 | 67.5926138 | 275 | 275 | 207.4073862 | 1.7% |
281.0083838 | 309.4082262 | 298.0482893 | 74.51207232 | 300 | 300 | 225.4879277 | 0.7% |
266.8069224 | 292.7469955 | 282.3709662 | 70.59274156 | 300 | 300 | 229.4072584 | 6.2% |
274.2543849 | 235.6437192 | 251.0879855 | 62.77199637 | 275 | 275 | 212.2280036 | 9.5% |
236.2742172 | 281.7259383 | 263.5452499 | 65.88631247 | 275 | 275 | 209.1136875 | 4.3% |
228.9955357 | 295.5981918 | 268.9571294 | 67.23928234 | 275 | 275 | 207.7607177 | 2.2% |
220.3001345 | 284.8008915 | 259.0005887 | 64.75014718 | 275 | 275 | 210.2498528 | 6.2% |
246.1443907 | 352.784835 | 310.1286572 | 77.53216431 | 300 | 300 | 222.4678357 | -3.3% |
206.4702861 | 314.8595624 | 271.5038519 | 67.87596298 | 275 | 275 | 207.124037 | 1.3% |
276.8817784 | 263.580897 | 268.9012496 | 67.22531239 | 275 | 275 | 207.7746876 | 2.3% |
254.0413213 | 284.5510508 | 272.347159 | 68.08678975 | 275 | 275 | 206.9132103 | 1.0% |
257.2103179 | 285.5768811 | 274.2302558 | 68.55756396 | 275 | 275 | 206.442436 | 0.3% |
230.4084886 | 271.5210525 | 255.0760269 | 63.76900673 | 275 | 275 | 211.2309933 | 7.8% |
244.1820612 | 312.6689372 | 285.2741868 | 71.31854671 | 300 | 300 | 228.6814533 | 5.2% |
271.9483405 | 298.6529003 | 287.9710764 | 71.9927691 | 300 | 300 | 228.0072309 | 4.2% |
219.8705115 | 270.4994701 | 250.2478867 | 62.56197166 | 275 | 275 | 212.4380283 | 9.9% |
234.6530174 | 327.2874447 | 290.2336738 | 72.55841844 | 300 | 300 | 227.4415816 | 3.4% |
177.9609605 | 262.7755793 | 228.8497318 | 57.21243295 | 250 | 250 | 192.7875671 | 9.2% |
263.7776292 | 301.2356754 | 286.2524569 | 71.56311423 | 300 | 300 | 228.4368858 | 4.8% |
191.2009386 | 289.5465021 | 250.2082767 | 62.55206918 | 275 | 275 | 212.4479308 | 9.9% |
244.7873425 | 281.2802884 | 266.6831101 | 66.67077752 | 275 | 275 | 208.3292225 | 3.1% |
244.8592602 | 331.6189022 | 296.9150454 | 74.22876134 | 300 | 300 | 225.7712387 | 1.0% |
307.936789 | 234.8216584 | 264.0677106 | 66.01692765 | 275 | 275 | 208.9830723 | 4.1% |
282.8179639 | 314.1912782 | 301.6419525 | 75.41048813 | 300 | 300 | 224.5895119 | -0.5% |
198.4799168 | 283.9933726 | 249.7879903 | 62.44699758 | 250 | 250 | 187.5530024 | 0.1% |
203.8625521 | 285.4463657 | 252.8128402 | 63.20321006 | 275 | 275 | 211.7967899 | 8.8% |
236.7650366 | 266.0015213 | 254.3069274 | 63.57673185 | 275 | 275 | 211.4232681 | 8.1% |
258.5796425 | 316.9466602 | 293.5998531 | 73.39996328 | 300 | 300 | 226.6000367 | 2.2% |
267.2586915 | 301.0226825 | 287.5170861 | 71.87927152 | 300 | 300 | 228.1207285 | 4.3% |
225.0155659 | 260.5348333 | 246.3271263 | 61.58178158 | 250 | 250 | 188.4182184 | 1.5% |
230.4635305 | 278.0795003 | 259.0331124 | 64.75827809 | 275 | 275 | 210.2417219 | 6.2% |
214.3221939 | 233.3532809 | 225.7408461 | 56.43521152 | 250 | 250 | 193.5647885 | 10.7% |
221.0112334 | 311.211961 | 275.13167 | 68.78291749 | 300 | 300 | 231.2170825 | 9.0% |
243.0724663 | 271.4206185 | 260.0813576 | 65.02033941 | 275 | 275 | 209.9796606 | 5.7% |
244.1829448 | 317.5483434 | 288.202184 | 72.05054599 | 300 | 300 | 227.949454 | 4.1% |
265.3451214 | 326.2964866 | 301.9159405 | 75.47898514 | 300 | 300 | 224.5210149 | -0.6% |
231.8002915 | 220.369991 | 224.9421112 | 56.2355278 | 250 | 250 | 193.7644722 | 11.1% |
295.5949086 | 304.3552061 | 300.8510871 | 75.21277179 | 300 | 300 | 224.7872282 | -0.3% |
285.0495202 | 295.2467622 | 291.1678654 | 72.79196636 | 300 | 300 | 227.2080336 | 3.0% |
261.3952025 | 295.171836 | 281.6611826 | 70.41529564 | 300 | 300 | 229.5847044 | 6.5% |
236.311973 | 286.5125852 | 266.4323403 | 66.60808508 | 275 | 275 | 208.3919149 | 3.2% |
248.7067908 | 241.8050522 | 244.5657476 | 61.14143691 | 250 | 250 | 188.8585631 | 2.2% |
274.6414571 | 279.3726494 | 277.4801725 | 69.37004313 | 300 | 300 | 230.6299569 | 8.1% |
242.928537 | 390.1381101 | 331.2542808 | 82.81357021 | 300 | 300 | 217.1864298 | -9.4% |
277.6630451 | 251.9125405 | 262.2127423 | 65.55318558 | 275 | 275 | 209.4468144 | 4.9% |
264.7451577 | 267.807948 | 266.5828319 | 66.64570798 | 275 | 275 | 208.354292 | 3.2% |
174.5535634 | 294.5232523 | 246.5353768 | 61.63384419 | 250 | 250 | 188.3661558 | 1.4% |
152.930683 | 282.4787238 | 230.6595075 | 57.66487687 | 250 | 250 | 192.3351231 | 8.4% |
272.8491722 | 306.7148219 | 293.168562 | 73.29214051 | 300 | 300 | 226.7078595 | 2.3% |
235.546529 | 363.4592213 | 312.2941444 | 78.0735361 | 300 | 300 | 221.9264639 | -3.9% |
337.9324237 | 260.3574112 | 291.3874162 | 72.84685405 | 300 | 300 | 227.153146 | 3.0% |
307.7732144 | 261.4796517 | 279.9970768 | 69.9992692 | 300 | 300 | 230.0007308 | 7.1% |
273.1342064 | 276.6638724 | 275.252006 | 68.8130015 | 300 | 300 | 231.1869985 | 9.0% |
230.4507562 | 315.8037887 | 281.6625757 | 70.41564392 | 300 | 300 | 229.5843561 | 6.5% |
206.7481081 | 299.9424207 | 262.6646957 | 65.66617391 | 275 | 275 | 209.3338261 | 4.7% |
249.609688 | 250.0950706 | 249.9009175 | 62.47522939 | 250 | 250 | 187.5247706 | 0.0% |
199.7604665 | 282.5370527 | 249.4264182 | 62.35660456 | 250 | 250 | 187.6433954 | 0.2% |
223.9650978 | 268.1688528 | 250.4873508 | 62.6218377 | 275 | 275 | 212.3781623 | 9.8% |
282.1914874 | 319.0561061 | 304.3102586 | 76.07756465 | 300 | 300 | 223.9224353 | -1.4% |
198.9584608 | 271.9858657 | 242.7749037 | 60.69372594 | 250 | 250 | 189.3062741 | 3.0% |
345.7121211 | 342.4936811 | 343.7810571 | 85.94526427 | 300 | 300 | 214.0547357 | -12.7% |
232.50295 | 237.0759823 | 235.2467694 | 58.81169234 | 250 | 250 | 191.1883077 | 6.3% |
192.1091343 | 297.2748351 | 255.2085548 | 63.8021387 | 275 | 275 | 211.1978613 | 7.8% |
206.5847291 | 336.3393638 | 284.4375099 | 71.10937748 | 300 | 300 | 228.8906225 | 5.5% |
280.2711636 | 312.6472584 | 299.6968204 | 74.92420511 | 300 | 300 | 225.0757949 | 0.1% |
265.2211079 | 261.5173317 | 262.9988422 | 65.74971054 | 275 | 275 | 209.2502895 | 4.6% |
264.299197 | 285.0575458 | 276.7542063 | 69.18855157 | 300 | 300 | 230.8114484 | 8.4% |
192.3439116 | 256.6134484 | 230.9056337 | 57.72640843 | 250 | 250 | 192.2735916 | 8.3% |
187.392384 | 295.5573266 | 252.2913495 | 63.07283738 | 275 | 275 | 211.9271626 | 9.0% |
275.771259 | 335.754656 | 311.7612972 | 77.9403243 | 300 | 300 | 222.0596757 | -3.8% |
235.7181604 | 330.6090446 | 292.6526909 | 73.16317273 | 300 | 300 | 226.8368273 | 2.5% |
288.210114 | 277.7869396 | 281.9562094 | 70.48905234 | 300 | 300 | 229.5109477 | 6.4% |
226.8229125 | 276.4713619 | 256.6119822 | 64.15299554 | 275 | 275 | 210.8470045 | 7.2% |
185.7617445 | 279.095356 | 241.7619114 | 60.44047784 | 250 | 250 | 189.5595222 | 3.4% |
257.7273207 | 251.1814643 | 253.7998069 | 63.44995172 | 275 | 275 | 211.5500483 | 8.4% |
299.3901906 | 320.2793089 | 311.9236616 | 77.98091539 | 300 | 300 | 222.0190846 | -3.8% |
310.4443436 | 320.1683072 | 316.2787218 | 79.06968044 | 300 | 300 | 220.9303196 | -5.1% |
249.8695622 | 275.8148633 | 265.4367429 | 66.35918572 | 275 | 275 | 208.6408143 | 3.6% |
214.7299078 | 320.3200887 | 278.0840163 | 69.52100408 | 300 | 300 | 230.4789959 | 7.9% |
269.147024 | 261.2449291 | 264.405767 | 66.10144176 | 275 | 275 | 208.8985582 | 4.0% |
161.3271853 | 274.5068836 | 229.2350043 | 57.30875107 | 250 | 250 | 192.6912489 | 9.1% |
255.4754511 | 242.5369801 | 247.7123685 | 61.92809212 | 250 | 250 | 188.0719079 | 0.9% |
255.8051804 | 332.3084893 | 301.7071658 | 75.42679144 | 300 | 300 | 224.5732086 | -0.6% |
207.9354842 | 347.7620536 | 291.8314258 | 72.95785646 | 300 | 300 | 227.0421435 | 2.8% |
300.4229566 | 314.1012848 | 308.6299535 | 77.15748838 | 300 | 300 | 222.8425116 | -2.8% |
247.3467285 | 262.3125405 | 256.3262157 | 64.08155394 | 275 | 275 | 210.9184461 | 7.3% |
176.2398919 | 207.0667968 | 194.7360349 | 48.68400872 | 250 | 250 | 201.3159913 | 28.4% |
214.193813 | 293.6392056 | 261.8610485 | 65.46526213 | 275 | 275 | 209.5347379 | 5.0% |
236.0322415 | 258.1420306 | 249.298115 | 62.32452874 | 250 | 250 | 187.6754713 | 0.3% |
290.5535765 | 279.3541656 | 283.8339299 | 70.95848248 | 300 | 300 | 229.0415175 | 5.7% |
178.0335419 | 339.4136976 | 274.8616353 | 68.71540883 | 275 | 275 | 206.2845912 | 0.1% |
246.8726223 | 307.0134399 | 282.9571129 | 70.73927822 | 300 | 300 | 229.2607218 | 6.0% |
188.6066242 | 288.0588494 | 248.2779593 | 62.06948984 | 250 | 250 | 187.9305102 | 0.7% |
229.5790838 | 257.9488786 | 246.6009607 | 61.65024016 | 250 | 250 | 188.3497598 | 1.4% |
188.5883572 | 344.8491166 | 282.3448128 | 70.5862032 | 300 | 300 | 229.4137968 | 6.3% |
175.561235 | 293.143098 | 246.1103528 | 61.52758821 | 250 | 250 | 188.4724118 | 1.6% |
213.698134 | 285.8745832 | 257.0040036 | 64.25100089 | 275 | 275 | 210.7489991 | 7.0% |
267.8706542 | 294.1921192 | 283.6635332 | 70.91588329 | 300 | 300 | 229.0841167 | 5.8% |
280.3272436 | 267.430736 | 272.589339 | 68.14733476 | 275 | 275 | 206.8526652 | 0.9% |
174.6990436 | 264.306841 | 228.463722 | 57.11593051 | 250 | 250 | 192.8840695 | 9.4% |
193.617978 | 291.585962 | 252.3987684 | 63.0996921 | 275 | 275 | 211.9003079 | 9.0% |
223.7725405 | 339.8488581 | 293.418331 | 73.35458276 | 300 | 300 | 226.6454172 | 2.2% |
294.7189388 | 288.5394231 | 291.0112294 | 72.75280735 | 300 | 300 | 227.2471927 | 3.1% |
260.0261948 | 310.8168946 | 290.5006147 | 72.62515367 | 300 | 300 | 227.3748463 | 3.3% |
203.4032933 | 336.5778869 | 283.3080494 | 70.82701236 | 300 | 300 | 229.1729876 | 5.9% |
180.2016814 | 264.5452165 | 230.8078025 | 57.70195062 | 250 | 250 | 192.2980494 | 8.3% |
281.4342408 | 281.5791084 | 281.5211614 | 70.38029035 | 300 | 300 | 229.6197097 | 6.6% |
304.4915374 | 349.5904868 | 331.550907 | 82.88772675 | 300 | 300 | 217.1122732 | -9.5% |
241.840078 | 263.2117518 | 254.6630823 | 63.66577056 | 275 | 275 | 211.3342294 | 8.0% |
177.5996998 | 316.9515076 | 261.2107844 | 65.30269611 | 275 | 275 | 209.6973039 | 5.3% |
188.1524545 | 259.5756249 | 231.0063567 | 57.75158919 | 250 | 250 | 192.2484108 | 8.2% |
230.2560289 | 340.6998872 | 296.5223439 | 74.13058597 | 300 | 300 | 225.869414 | 1.2% |
162.2412539 | 306.9878938 | 249.0892379 | 62.27230946 | 250 | 250 | 187.7276905 | 0.4% |
247.5041803 | 319.6919354 | 290.8168334 | 72.70420835 | 300 | 300 | 227.2957917 | 3.2% |
295.286282 | 293.3261556 | 294.1102061 | 73.52755153 | 300 | 300 | 226.4724485 | 2.0% |
249.7890612 | 260.2851505 | 256.0867148 | 64.02167869 | 275 | 275 | 210.9783213 | 7.4% |
208.3635016 | 308.1949544 | 268.2623733 | 67.06559332 | 275 | 275 | 207.9344067 | 2.5% |
180.0702752 | 281.9606198 | 241.2044819 | 60.30112049 | 250 | 250 | 189.6988795 | 3.6% |
212.3670219 | 281.3425888 | 253.752362 | 63.43809051 | 275 | 275 | 211.5619095 | 8.4% |
185.1582744 | 279.7900092 | 241.9373153 | 60.48432882 | 250 | 250 | 189.5156712 | 3.3% |
242.1350391 | 267.6825139 | 257.463524 | 64.36588099 | 275 | 275 | 210.634119 | 6.8% |
279.7936736 | 314.2600039 | 300.4734718 | 75.11836795 | 300 | 300 | 224.8816321 | -0.2% |
242.4882791 | 266.0223742 | 256.6087361 | 64.15218404 | 275 | 275 | 210.847816 | 7.2% |
182.9998396 | 301.325991 | 253.9955305 | 63.49888262 | 275 | 275 | 211.5011174 | 8.3% |
200.4149583 | 290.5503142 | 254.4961719 | 63.62404297 | 275 | 275 | 211.375957 | 8.1% |
217.1434658 | 261.272921 | 243.6211389 | 60.90528473 | 250 | 250 | 189.0947153 | 2.6% |
average order should be 279
we use the folling functions for
non blowout ==NORM.INV(RAND(),240,40)
blowout = =NORM.INV(RAND(),290,30)
expected order = =0.4*non blowout+0.6*blowout
cost = .25*expected order
order =IF(expected order>275, 300, IF(AND(expected order<275, expected order>250), 275, 250))
revnue =1*cost
profit= revenue-cost
%unsold = expected demand/order - 1