Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the...

Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the following data and create a forecast model that will enable you to solve the problem, and then solve.

Given:

Period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Demand: 1500, 2100, 1900, 2250, 2200, 3000, 2675, 3327, 3619, 3550

Solutions

Expert Solution

Result:

Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the following data and create a forecast model that will enable you to solve the problem, and then solve.

Given:

Period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Demand: 1500, 2100, 1900, 2250, 2200, 3000, 2675, 3327, 3619, 3550

Regression Analysis

	r²	0.913	n	10
	r	0.956	k	1
	Std. Error	229.824	Dep. Var.	Demand

ANOVA table
Source	SS	df	MS	F	p-value
Regression	4,443,496.5121	1	4,443,496.5121	84.13	1.61E-05
Residual	422,554.3879	8	52,819.2985
Total	4,866,050.9000	9


Regression output					confidence interval
variables	coefficients	std. error	t (df=8)	p-value	95% lower	95% upper
Intercept	1,335.6667	157.0000	8.507	2.80E-05	973.6240	1,697.7094
period	232.0788	25.3028	9.172	1.61E-05	173.7303	290.4273

Predicted values for: Demand
		95% Confidence Interval		95% Prediction Interval
period	Predicted	lower	upper	lower	upper	Leverage
15	4,816.848	4,237.757	5,395.940	4,031.850	5,601.847	1.194

The forecast model is

Demand = 1,335.6667+232.0788*period.

When period =15,

The predicted demand =1,335.6667+232.0788*15

=4816.85

orchestra answered 1 year ago

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