Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the...

Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the following data and create a forecast model that will enable you to solve the problem, and then solve.

Given:

Period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Demand: 1500, 2100, 1900, 2250, 2200, 3000, 2675, 3327, 3619, 3550

Solutions

Expert Solution

Result:

Calculate how many barrels of oil to refine, for the 15th year, into gasoline. Use the following data and create a forecast model that will enable you to solve the problem, and then solve.

Given:

Period: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10

Demand: 1500, 2100, 1900, 2250, 2200, 3000, 2675, 3327, 3619, 3550

Regression Analysis

r²

0.913

n

10

r

0.956

k

1

Std. Error

229.824

Dep. Var.

Demand

ANOVA table

Source

SS

df

MS

F

p-value

Regression

4,443,496.5121

1  

4,443,496.5121

84.13

1.61E-05

Residual

422,554.3879

8  

52,819.2985

Total

4,866,050.9000

9  

Regression output

confidence interval

variables

coefficients

std. error

   t (df=8)

p-value

95% lower

95% upper

Intercept

1,335.6667

157.0000

8.507

2.80E-05

973.6240

1,697.7094

period

232.0788

25.3028

9.172

1.61E-05

173.7303

290.4273

Predicted values for: Demand

95% Confidence Interval

95% Prediction Interval

period

Predicted

lower

upper

lower

upper

Leverage

15

4,816.848

4,237.757

5,395.940

4,031.850

5,601.847

1.194

The forecast model is

Demand = 1,335.6667+232.0788*period.

When period =15,

The predicted demand =1,335.6667+232.0788*15

=4816.85

orchestra answered 2 years ago
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