In: Math
Negative campaigning or mudslinging is the process of deliberate spreading negative information about someone or something to worsen the public image of the described.
Deliberate spreading of such information can be motivated either by honest desire of the campaigner to warn others against real dangers or deficiencies of the described, or by the campaigner's dishonest ideas on methods of winning in political, business or other spheres of competition against an honest rival.
The research analyzed was limited to surveys and laboratory experiments, both of which have drawbacks. The typical survey looks at the correlation between television ad exposure and public opinion, yet that TV advertising is neither targeted nor received randomly, so the apparent correlation between perceptions of a candidate and exposure to negative campaigns may be misleading. In the lab, although exposure to TV advertising can be randomly assigned, participants are exposed to ads in a contrived setting, and their candidate preferences are usually measured shortly after. Thus it's unclear whether the effects of ads persist after participants leave the lab. After all, in an actual campaign, people seldom vote immediately after viewing TV ads.
To overcome these limitations, it is important to study the effectiveness of TV ads on voter preferences during a campaign. In a study that my colleagues and I conducted in collaboration with the 2006 election campaign of Governor Rick Perry of Texas, 18 media markets in the state were randomly assigned to receive different levels of pro-Perry TV ads, and daily tracking polls gauged whether Perry's numbers improved as a function of increased advertising. The results suggested that advertising effects are short-lived. Perhaps the effects would have lasted longer than a week had the ads revealed memorable damning information about the opponent. But no field experiment has done a head-to-head comparison of TV advertising tone.
Although evidence on the effectiveness of negative political ads is inconclusive, campaign consultants clearly believe in their power, which explains why negative ads are so often used.
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