Question

betting theory on tennis

A bookmaker has quoted odds on a tennis match between players I and II. The match consists of the best two out of three sets, i.e., if a player wins the first two sets, the third set is not played and the bet on it is canceled. The bookmaker is giving odds of 5 to 2 that player I will win the match and odds of 3 to 2 that player I will win each set. A bettor has 100 dollars which he can distribute by betting on either player I or II to win the match and any of the sets. All bets are made before the match starts (if there are only two sets, all bets on the third set are returned to the bettor).
(a) Find a way of placing bets so that no matter what happens the bettor is assured of winning an amount z where z is as large as possible. Formulate this problem as a linear programming and solve it using AMPL.
(b) What if now we have best three out of five sets, i.e., once a player wins three sets, no more sets are played and their corresponding bets are canceled, and everything else keeps the same? Re-solve the problem and compare the answer with part (a).

Answer 1

Heading into the 2014 Australian Open, Rafael Nadal was the top seed in Melbourne and the world no.1. Nadal was hot-off a sensational return to top form in 2013 that saw him come back from injury to take both the French and U.S.

• Opens plus nine other titles. After dismissing Roger Federer easily in the semifinals, Nadal was a strong 1.18 favourite to defeat Stan Wawrinka in the final of the 2014 Australian Open. At those odds, if a bettor placed a £10 bet on Nadal to win, they would win back a total of £11.80 – including the original £10 stake, making a profit of just £1.80.  

As a probability, there was an 84.75% chance of a Nadal victory.

• Despite playing the best tennis of his career and defeating defending champion Novak Djokovic in the quarterfinals, Stan Wawrinka was a massive 5.60 underdog going into the final against Nadal. This was primarily based on his record of 12 straight defeats against the Spaniard in all meetings, in which Wawrinka had failed to even win a set.

RULES FOR BETTING?

Tennis offers more variables and more markets than almost any other sport, but if one wishes to maximise their profits and minimise their risks, they need to implement a tennis betting strategy based on a combination of scientific theory plus good old-fashioned discipline.

Betting on tennis involves identifying value and sound money management. An excellent way to maintain your discipline in both respects is keep a record of each of your tennis bets.

This record should include the date, tournament, bet type, bookmaker, your stake, your Odds, profit/loss and comments.

If you are failing to keep a record of your tennis betting, then you're putting your chances of being a long term profitable tennis bettor at severe risk. By keeping a detailed record of your tennis betting, you will be able to conduct regular reviews of your overall performance. Which bet types are you most consistently profitable on? Which tournaments are you losing money on? Not only that but when a losing streak arrives (and they happen to even the best tennis bettors) you will be able to look back readily observe how you pulled yourself out of losing streaks in the past.

(A).

Betting on tennis involves identifying value and sound money management. An excellent way to maintain your discipline in both respects is keep a record of each of your tennis bets.

This record should include the date, tournament, bet type, bookmaker, your stake, your Odds, profit/loss and comments.

If you are failing to keep a record of your tennis betting, then you're putting your chances of being a long term profitable tennis bettor at severe risk. By keeping a detailed record of your tennis betting, you will be able to conduct regular reviews of your overall performance. Which bet types are you most consistently profitable on? Which tournaments are you losing money on? Not only that but when a losing streak arrives (and they happen to even the best tennis bettors) you will be able to look back readily observe how you pulled yourself out of losing streaks in the past.

(B). Look For The Suspect Seed

Understand Serving and Returning  

player on the tour, male or female. Watch both a service game and a return game of a player, and you can quickly asses what type of player they are; a big server, a serve-volleyer (rare these days), a baseliner, a strong returner, big forehand or backhand etc.  

This is a useful tool, especially if you are unfamiliar with a player, or you want to see their playing style and how it would relate to a particular surface.