Question
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George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George's sailboats during each of...
George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George's sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows:
| Season | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winter | 1,440 | 1,240 | 1,000 | 960 |
| Spring | 1,500 | 1,440 | 1,640 | 1,540 |
| Summer | 1,000 | 2,100 | 2,040 | 2,000 |
| Fall | 640 | 750 | 670 | 520 |
George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 6,500 sailboats.
Based on the given data and using the multiplicative seasonal model, the demand level for George's sailboats in the spring of year 5 will be _______ sailboats (enter a whole number).
Solutions
Expert Solution
1. SPRING = 1814
EXPLANATION:
|
SEASON |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
|
WINTER |
1440 |
1200 |
1040 |
960 |
|
SPRING |
1560 |
1400 |
1620 |
1540 |
|
SUMMER |
1000 |
2120 |
2020 |
1900 |
|
FALL |
600 |
750 |
650 |
560 |
|
AVERAGE |
1150 |
1367.5 |
1332.5 |
1240 |
AVERAGE 1 = 1440 + 1560 + 1000 + 600 / 4 = 1150
AVERAGE 2 = 1200 + 1400 + 2120 + 750 / 4 = 1367.5
AVERAGE 3 = 1040 + 1620 + 2020 + 650 / 4 = 1332.5
AVERAGE 4 = 960 + 1540 + 1900 + 560 / 4 = 1240
|
SEASON |
1 |
2 |
3 |
4 |
AVERAGE SI |
|
WINTER |
1440 / 1150 = 1.25217391304348 |
1200 / 1367.5 = 0.877513711151737 |
1040 / 1332.5 = 0.780487804878049 |
960 / 1240 = 0.774193548387097 |
1.252173913 + 0.8775137112 + 0.7804878049 + 0.7741935484 / 4 = 0.9211 |
|
SPRING |
1560 / 1150 = 1.35652173913043 |
1400 / 1367.5 = 1.02376599634369 |
1620 / 1332.5 = 1.21575984990619 |
1540 / 1240 = 1.24193548387097 |
1.356521739 + 1.023765996 + 1.21575985 + 1.241935484 / 4 = 1.2095 |
|
SUMMER |
1000 / 1150 = 0.869565217391304 |
2120 / 1367.5 = 1.55027422303473 |
2020 / 1332.5 = 1.51594746716698 |
1900 / 1240 = 1.53225806451613 |
0.8695652174 + 1.550274223 + 1.515947467 + 1.532258065 / 4 = 1.367 |
|
FALL |
600 / 1150 = 0.521739130434783 |
750 / 1367.5 = 0.548446069469835 |
650 / 1332.5 = 0.487804878048781 |
560 / 1240 = 0.451612903225806 |
0.5217391304 + 0.5484460695 + 0.487804878 + 0.4516129032 / 4 = 0.5024 |
ANNUAL SALES NEXT YEAR = 6000
AVERAGE SALES PER SEASON = 1500
ADJUSTED DEMAND
|
SEASON |
1 |
CALCULATION |
|
WINTER |
1382 |
1500 * 0.9211 = 1382 |
|
SPRING |
1814 |
1500 * 1.2095 = 1814 |
|
SUMMER |
2051 |
1500 * 1.367 = 2051 |
|
FALL |
754 |
1500 * 0.5024 = 754 |
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