Question

George Kyparisis owns a company that manufactures sailboats. Actual demand for George's sailboats during each of the past four seasons was as follows: 

Season	1	2	3	4
Winter	1,440	1,240	1,000	960
Spring	1,500	1,440	1,640	1,540
Summer	1,000	2,100	2,040	2,000
Fall	640	750	670	520

George has forecasted that annual demand for his sailboats in year 5 will equal 6,500 sailboats. 

Based on the given data and using the multiplicative seasonal model, the demand level for George's sailboats in the spring of year 5 will be _______  sailboats (enter a whole number).

Answer 1

1. SPRING = 1814

EXPLANATION:

SEASON	1	2	3	4
WINTER	1440	1200	1040	960
SPRING	1560	1400	1620	1540
SUMMER	1000	2120	2020	1900
FALL	600	750	650	560
AVERAGE	1150	1367.5	1332.5	1240

AVERAGE 1 = 1440 + 1560 + 1000 + 600 / 4 = 1150

AVERAGE 2 = 1200 + 1400 + 2120 + 750 / 4 = 1367.5

AVERAGE 3 = 1040 + 1620 + 2020 + 650 / 4 = 1332.5

AVERAGE 4 = 960 + 1540 + 1900 + 560 / 4 = 1240

SEASON	1	2	3	4	AVERAGE SI
WINTER	1440 / 1150 = 1.25217391304348	1200 / 1367.5 = 0.877513711151737	1040 / 1332.5 = 0.780487804878049	960 / 1240 = 0.774193548387097	1.252173913 + 0.8775137112 + 0.7804878049 + 0.7741935484 / 4 = 0.9211
SPRING	1560 / 1150 = 1.35652173913043	1400 / 1367.5 = 1.02376599634369	1620 / 1332.5 = 1.21575984990619	1540 / 1240 = 1.24193548387097	1.356521739 + 1.023765996 + 1.21575985 + 1.241935484 / 4 = 1.2095
SUMMER	1000 / 1150 = 0.869565217391304	2120 / 1367.5 = 1.55027422303473	2020 / 1332.5 = 1.51594746716698	1900 / 1240 = 1.53225806451613	0.8695652174 + 1.550274223 + 1.515947467 + 1.532258065 / 4 = 1.367
FALL	600 / 1150 = 0.521739130434783	750 / 1367.5 = 0.548446069469835	650 / 1332.5 = 0.487804878048781	560 / 1240 = 0.451612903225806	0.5217391304 + 0.5484460695 + 0.487804878 + 0.4516129032 / 4 = 0.5024

ANNUAL SALES NEXT YEAR = 6000

AVERAGE SALES PER SEASON = 1500

ADJUSTED DEMAND

SEASON	1	CALCULATION
WINTER	1382	1500 * 0.9211 = 1382
SPRING	1814	1500 * 1.2095 = 1814
SUMMER	2051	1500 * 1.367 = 2051
FALL	754	1500 * 0.5024 = 754