Question

Please answer the following: United Dairies, Inc., supplies milk to several independent grocers throughout Dade County, Florida. Managers at United Dairies want to develop a forecast of the number of half gallons of milk sold per week. Sales data for the past 12 weeks are:

Week	Sales
1	2,750
2	3,100
3	3,250
4	2,800
5	2,900
6	3,050
7	3,300
8	3,100
9	2,950
10	3,000
11	3,200
12	3,150

1. Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series.

1. 1. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts.
   2. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? The MSE for three weeks is 23527.78
2. Show the exponential smoothing forecasts using α = 0.1.
   1. Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of α=0.1 or α= 0.2 for the United Dairies sales time series?
   2. Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy?
   3. What are the results if MAPE is used?
3. Use exponential smoothing with a α = 0.4 to develop a forecast of demand for week 13. What is the resulting MSE?

PLEASE USE EXCEL AND ANSWER EACH PART OF THE QUESTION. THANKS !

ANSWER- THAT'S WHAT I GOT SO FAR:

Average=>	117.19	19,238.28	3.8%		101.43	16300.00	3.21%
	MAE	MSE	MAPE		MAE	MSE	MAPE

Answer 1

4 weeks moving the average

5 weeks moving an average

Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.01

Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.02

Exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.04