Question

Since its inception in 1967, the Super Bowl has been one of the most watched events on u.S. television every year. The number of u.S. households that tuned in for each Super Bowl, reported by nielsen.com, is provided in the data set SuperBowlratings.

a. Construct a time series plot for the data. What type of pattern exists in the data? discuss some of the patterns that may have resulted in the pattern exhibited in the time series plot of the data.

b. given the pattern of the time series plot developed in part (a), do you think the forecasting methods discussed in this chapter are appropriate to develop forecasts for this time series? explain.

c. use simple linear regression analysis to find the parameters for the line that minimizes mSe for this time series

Super Bowl	U.S. Viewership	Nielsen Rating	Avg # of Homes
I	51,180,000	41.1	51,180
II	39,120,000	36.8	20,610
III	41,660,000	36	20,520
IV	44,300,000	39.4	23,050
IX	56,000,000	42.4	29,040
V	46,000,000	39.9	23,980
VI	56,640,000	44.2	27,450
VII	53,320,000	42.7	27,670
VIII	51,700,000	41.6	27,540
X	57,700,000	42.3	29,440
XI	62,000,000	44.4	31,610
XII	78,940,000	47.2	34,410
XIII	74,740,000	47.1	35,090
XIV	76,200,000	46.3	35,330
XIX	85,520,000	46.4	39,390
XL	90,700,000	41.6	45,867
XLI	93,200,000	42.6	47,505
XLII	97,500,000	43.1	48,665
XLIII	98,700,000	42	48,139
XLIV	106,500,000	45	51,728
XLV	111,000,000	46	53,282
XLVI	111,300,000	47.1	53,910
XLVII	108,690,000	46.4	52,998
XLVIII	111,500,000	46.4	0
XV	68,290,000	44.4	34,540
XVI	85,240,000	49.1	40,020
XVII	81,770,000	48.6	40,480
XVIII	77,620,000	46.4	38,880
XX	92,570,000	48.3	41,490
XXI	87,200,000	45.8	40,030
XXII	80,140,000	41.9	37,120
XXIII	81,600,000	43.5	39,320
XXIV	73,850,000	39	35,920
XXIX	83,400,000	41.3	39,400
XXV	79,510,000	41.9	39,010
XXVI	79,600,000	40.3	37,120
XXVII	90,990,000	45.1	41,990
XXVIII	90,000,000	45.5	42,860
XXX	94,080,000	46	44,145
XXXI	87,870,000	43.3	42,000
XXXII	90,000,000	44.5	43,630
XXXIII	83,700,000	40.2	39,992
XXXIV	88,500,000	43.3	43,618
XXXIX	86,000,000	41.1	45,081
XXXV	84,300,000	40.4	41,270
XXXVI	86,800,000	40.4	42,664
XXXVII	88,600,000	40.7	43,433
XXXVIII	89,800,000	41.4	44,908

Answer 1

From the graphs shown with forecast, three months moving average shows a lesser mse.