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In: Math

B) An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two categories; those who are...

B) An insurance company believes that people can be divided into two categories; those who are accident prone and those who are not. The company’s statistics show that an accident-prone person will have a car accident within a one-year period with probability 0.4, whereas this probability decreases to 0.2 for a person who is not accident prone. The data also suggest that 30% of the population is accident prone. What is the probability that a new policyholder will have an accident within a year of purchasing the policy?

B)A spam filter is designed by looking at commonly occurring phrases in spam. Suppose that

80% of all emails sent are spam. In 10% of the spam emails, the phrase "free money" is used,

whereas this phrase is only used in 1% of non-spam emails. A new email has just arrived, which

does mention "free money". What is the probability that it is spam?

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