In: Statistics and Probability
From public records, individuals were identified as having been charged with drunken driving not less than 6 months or more than 12 months from the starting date of the study. Two random samples from this group were studied. In the first sample of 29 individuals, the respondents were asked in a face-to-face interview if they had been charged with drunken driving in the last 12 months. Of these 29 people interviewed face to face, 12 answered the question accurately. The second random sample consisted of 41people who had been charged with drunken driving. During a telephone interview, 23 of these responded accurately to the question asking if they had been charged with drunken driving during the past 12 months. Assume the samples are representative of all people recently charged with drunken driving.
(a) Categorize the problem below according to parameter being estimated, proportion p, mean μ, difference of means μ1 – μ2, or difference of proportions p1 – p2. Then solve the problem.
μ1 – μ2p p1 – p2μ
(b) Let p1 represent the population proportion
of all people with recent charges of drunken driving who respond
accurately to a face-to-face interview asking if they have been
charged with drunken driving during the past 12 months. Let
p2 represent the population proportion of all
people who respond accurately to the question when it is asked in a
telephone interview. Find a 99% confidence interval for
p1 – p2. (Use 3 decimal
places.)
lower limit | |
upper limit |
(c) Does the interval found in part (a) contain numbers that are all positive? all negative? mixed? Comment on the meaning of the confidence interval in the context of this problem. At the 99% level, do you detect any differences in the proportion of accurate responses to the question from face-to- face interviews as compared with the proportion of accurate responses from telephone interviews?
Because the interval contains only positive numbers, we can say that there is a higher proportion of accurate responses in face-to-face interviews.Because the interval contains both positive and negative numbers, we can not say that there is a higher proportion of accurate responses in face-to-face interviews. We can not make any conclusions using this confidence interval.Because the interval contains only negative numbers, we can say that there is a higher proportion of accurate responses in telephone interviews.
using excel>addin>phstat>two sample test
we have
Z Test for Differences in Two Proportions | ||||
Data | Confidence Interval Estimate | |||
Hypothesized Difference | 0 | of the Difference Between Two Proportions | ||
Level of Significance | 0.05 | |||
Group 1 | Data | |||
Number of Items of Interest | 12 | Confidence Level | 99% | |
Sample Size | 29 | |||
Group 2 | Intermediate Calculations | |||
Number of Items of Interest | 23 | Z Value | -2.5758 | |
Sample Size | 41 | Std. Error of the Diff. between two Proportions | 0.1199 | |
Interval Half Width | 0.3088 | |||
Intermediate Calculations | ||||
Group 1 Proportion | 0.413793103 | Confidence Interval | ||
Group 2 Proportion | 0.56097561 | Interval Lower Limit | -0.4560 | |
Difference in Two Proportions | -0.14718251 | Interval Upper Limit | 0.1616 | |
Average Proportion | 0.5000 | |||
Z Test Statistic | -1.2132 | |||
Two-Tail Test | ||||
Lower Critical Value | -1.9600 | |||
Upper Critical Value | 1.9600 | |||
p-Value | 0.2251 | |||
Do not reject the null hypothesis | ||||
(a) difference of proportions p1 – p2. =-0.14718251
(b) a 99% confidence interval for p1 – p2.
Interval Lower Limit | -0.456 |
Interval Upper Limit | 0.162 |
c) mixed
.Because the interval contains both positive and negative numbers, we can not say that there is a higher proportion of accurate responses in face-to-face interviews.