alian share market has been punching above its weight in
recent years, leaving Australians with little need to look overseas
for investment opportunities. But all prize-fighters have their
day, and while the outlook for both Australian and international
shares is uncertain, it makes sense to spread your risk and wage a
small bet on global equities. For most people, the easiest way to
do this is to invest in an international equity fund.
In the 12 months to May 31 when the Australian market returned
23.5 percent and global equities (measured by the MSCI World Index)
returned 4.8 percent, the top 10 international
funds returned more than 12 percent. Over three years, which
is a more reliable measure of fund performance, seven of the 10
convincingly outperformed world markets, which fell 2.5
percent.
Most pundits expect the returns from Australian shares to be
more muted over the next 12 months, encouraging professional
investors to take a closer look at the alternatives. A recent
survey of 43 investment managers by Russell Investment Group found
that most believe international equities will be the strongest
performer over the next 12 months.
A market veteran and independent consultant, Don Stammer,
insists the "investment arithmetic" for global equity markets is
not stretched. Overseas markets have recovered from their low of
2003 but they have not climbed to record levels, as Australian
shares have. He believes share valuations are comfortable rather
than stretched, in Australia as well in the US and Asia. Stammer
considers the big risk to global markets over the next 12 months is
unpredictable events in the Middle East. "The biggest unknowable is
exchange rates," he says.
"Unforecastable" is how Hans Kunnen, the head of investment
markets research at Colonial First State, describes the Australian
dollar, but he agrees that much depends on it. If commodity prices
hold up then the Aussie dollar should do too, but if the US
increases interest rates, attracting global capital away from
competing currencies, then our dollar could come under pressure.
Because of this exchange rate uncertainty and the fact further
rises in the Aussie dollar will reduce returns of global funds when
they are converted back into Australian currency, Stammer says it
is important to choose a fund that can hedge.
The importance of hedging in the current market is
demonstrated by the dominance of hedged funds in the accompanying
table. While the fully hedged version of Invesco's Global Matrix
Fund was up almost 19 percent, the unhedged version - which is
identical in every other way - returned 11 percent.
In terms of regional markets, Stammer has a slight bias to
Asia with the exception of China. He believes the scheduled
tightening of monetary policy in the US is factored into the
market, while in Europe, he says, companies are performing better
than economies. Kunnen points out that despite all the talk about
China, its share market fell 25 percent over the past 12 months and
compares this with India, where shares rose 50 percent. "This
highlights the volatility in emerging markets; investors need to be
wary," he says.
Kunnen says the US is showing good resilience, Japan is
showing signs of life and he is neutral on Europe, although he
observes that European companies are doing well by focusing on
export markets and cutting costs. This is borne out by Equity
Trustees's Intrinsic Value Fund, one of last year's star
performers, which invested almost exclusively in European
markets.
It's possible to buy funds that focus on a region or a global
industry sector such as biotechnology or listed property, but for a
core international shareholding it makes sense to begin with a
diversified fund with the ability to invest across a range of
markets and sectors. Even then, there are choices to make. No one
style of fund prevailed last year. The top two funds are globally
diversified but they were followed by two resources funds,
reflecting the global commodities boom.
Index funds, which passively track a market index rather than
actively pick stocks, also held their own, with four in the top 10.
With fees significantly lower than their hyperactive rivals...,
they continue to offer value for money.’
Questions:
1. Explain the logic behind investing in international share
funds as against only
investing in domestic stocks.
2. Outline why it is important for firms to hedge their
exposure.
3. Explain the approach of index funds and its
advantage.