Ignoring the early warning signs caused the financial crisis
The 2007 GDP growth came in at 1.9%. But economy-watchers didn't
realize the sheer size of the subprime mortgage market. It created
a "perfect storm" of bad events.
- Central Bank should have been worried about the
credit-worthiness of borrowers and not allowed to resell the
mortgages on the secondary market.
- Check on unregulated mortgage brokers who made loans to people
who weren't qualified.
- Measures to avoid Homeowners taking out interest-only loans to
get lower monthly payments. As mortgage rates reset at a higher
level, these homeowners could not pay the mortgage. Then housing
prices fell and they couldn't sell their homes for a profit. As a
result, they defaulted.
- Banks should not have been allowed to repackage mortgages into
mortgage-backed securities. They hired sophisticated "quant jocks"
to create the new securities. The "quants" wrote computer programs
that further repackaged these MBS into high-risk and low-risk
bundles. The high-risk bundles paid higher interest rates, but were
more likely to default. The low-risk bundles paid less. The
programs were so complicated that no one understood what was in
each package. They had no idea how much of each bundle were
subprime mortgages. When times were good, it didn't matter.
Everyone bought the high-risk bundles because they gave a higher
return. As the housing market declined, everyone knew that the
products were losing value. Since no one understood them, the
resale value of these derivatives was unclear.
- Put check on individual investors, pension funds, and hedge
funds. That spread the risk throughout the economy. Hedge funds
used these derivatives as collateral to borrow money. That created
higher returns in a bull market but magnified the impact of any
downturn. The Securities and Exchange Commission did not regulate
hedge funds, so no one knew how much of it was going on.