Question

1. (Ch. 20 – Time Series Moving Averages)  Below is a table containing the closing prices ($US) for the stock of Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) from May 22, 2019 to June 12, 2019.

1. Complete the table by computing the 5 day and 10 day moving averages and entering them into the designated columns, beginning after the asterisks. Notice that with those moving averages you have created new times series variables, which are something like lag variables (though slightly different).  

2. Briefly comment on how well the moving averages forecast the associated daily closing price.  

CMG Daily Closes ($US)	5 Day MA	10 Day MA
716.04	*	*
672.12	*	*
667.56	*	*
690.07	*	*
677.97	*	*
673		*
664.97		*

651.66		*
667.18		*
674.48		*
697.18
719.87
730.52
739.24
742.74

Answer 1

Time Closes MA Predict Error
1 716.04 * * *
2 672.12 * * *
3 667.56 * * *
4 690.07 * * *
5 677.97 684.752 * *
6 673.00 676.144 684.752 -11.752
7 664.97 674.714 676.144 -11.174
8 651.66 671.534 674.714 -23.054
9 667.18 666.956 671.534 -4.354
10 674.48 666.258 666.956 7.524
11 697.18 671.094 666.258 30.922
12 719.87 682.074 671.094 48.776
13 730.52 697.846 682.074 48.446
14 739.24 712.258 697.846 41.394
15 742.74 725.910 712.258 30.482

Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper
16 725.91 666.478 785.342
17 725.91 666.478 785.342
18 725.91 666.478 785.342
19 725.91 666.478 785.342
20 725.91 666.478 785.342

Moving Average Plot for CMG Daily Closes

Moving Average for CMG Daily Closes

Data CMG Daily Closes
Length 15
NMissing 0

Moving Average

Length 10

Accuracy Measures

MAPE 6.24
MAD 45.55
MSD 2224.98

CMG Daily
Time Closes MA Predict Error
1 716.04 * * *
2 672.12 * * *
3 667.56 * * *
4 690.07 * * *
5 677.97 * * *
6 673.00 * * *
7 664.97 * * *
8 651.66 * * *
9 667.18 * * *
10 674.48 675.505 * *
11 697.18 673.619 675.505 21.675
12 719.87 678.394 673.619 46.251
13 730.52 684.690 678.394 52.126
14 739.24 689.607 684.690 54.550
15 742.74 696.084 689.607 53.133

Forecasts

Period Forecast Lower Upper
16 696.084 603.633 788.535
17 696.084 603.633 788.535
18 696.084 603.633 788.535
19 696.084 603.633 788.535
20 696.084 603.633 788.535
21 696.084 603.633 788.535
22 696.084 603.633 788.535
23 696.084 603.633 788.535
24 696.084 603.633 788.535
25 696.084 603.633 788.535