Question

Suppose it is October 2024 and Taylor Swift is a candidate for the president of the United States. (Taylor Swift will turn 35 in December 2024, so will meet the age requirement for serving as president.)

Suppose also that your friend Kyle is her campaign manager and claims that 55% of potential voters will vote for her. Kyle still knows no statistics and has asked you to help design a survey and perform a hypothesis test to test his claim.

1. What advice would you give Kyle about conducting a survey? (Consider reviewing issues in sampling methods from Lesson 1.)
2. Provide a brief description of the hypothesis testing advice that you would provide for Kyle based on the survey results.
   • For example, what would be your null hypothesis and your alternative hypothesis?
   • What information would you need from the survey?

Answer 1

1.Sampling

Here I would suggest stratified random sampling to kyle and consider every state as strata.

Then once she knows how many voters are favoring her she should get an estimate of how many voters will favor her in the entire population.

2.Hypothesis Testing

Here she should use a single sample proportion test.

: p = 0.55

: p < 0.55

Where p is the proportion of the number of voters favoring her to the total number of voters.

We would need to get the estimate of this proportion value from the sample.

p will follow the normal distribution

Here p0 = 0.55