In: Statistics and Probability
Political parties want to know what groups of people support them. The General Social Survey (GSS) asked its 2014 sample, "Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or what?" The GSS is essentially an SRS of American adults. Here is a large two-way tale breaking down the responses by the highest degree the subject held:
None | High School | Junior College | Bachelor | Graduate | |
Strong Democrat | 53 | 198 | 23 | 81 | 64 |
Not strong Democrat | 52 | 204 | 31 | 70 | 49 |
Independent, near Dem. | 40 | 163 | 26 | 66 | 42 |
Independent | 118 | 251 | 36 | 67 | 30 |
Independent, near Rep. | 24 | 136 | 19 | 45 | 25 |
Not strong Republican | 19 | 142 | 30 | 71 | 30 |
Strong Republican | 18 | 131 | 15 | 53 | 28 |
Other Party | 5 | 31 | 3 | 15 | 8 |
1. Make a 2x5 table by combining the counts in the three rows that mention Democrats, Republicans and ignoring strict independents and supporters of other parties. We might think of this table as comparing all adults who lean Democrat or Republican. How does does support for the two major parties differ among adults with different levels of education?
2. Use the full table to analyze the differences in political party support among levels of education. The sample is so large that the differences are bound to be highly significant. but give the χ2χ2 test statistic and p-value nonetheless. The main challenge is in seeing what the data say. Does the full table yield any insights not found in the compressed table analyzed in part 1?
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Answer:
The democrat numbers for none are obtained by adding Strong democrat, Not stron democrat and Independent near democrat = 53 + 52 + 40 = 145
The Republicans numbers for none are obtained by adding Strong Republicans , Not strong republicans and Independent near republicans= 24 + 19 + 18 = 61.
Similarly the calculations are followed across the table for high school, Junior high etc.
From the table we can see that the support is high for Democrats. It is provided maximum by the students having the education High School.
Chi Squared Table:
NONE | HS | JH | BACHELOR | GRADUATE | |||
Strong Democrat | Observed | 53 | 198 | 23 | 81 | 64 | 419 |
Expected | 54.88 | 209.50 | 30.52 | 78.06 | 46.04 | 419.00 | |
O - E | -1.88 | -11.50 | -7.52 | 2.94 | 17.96 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 0.06 | 0.63 | 1.85 | 0.11 | 7.01 | 9.67 | |
Not strong Democrat | Observed | 52 | 204 | 31 | 70 | 49 | 406 |
Expected | 53.17 | 203.00 | 29.58 | 75.64 | 44.61 | 406.00 | |
O - E | -1.17 | 1.00 | 1.42 | -5.64 | 4.39 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.95 | |
Independent, near Dem. | Observed | 40 | 163 | 26 | 66 | 42 | 337 |
Expected | 44.14 | 168.50 | 24.55 | 62.79 | 37.03 | 337.00 | |
O - E | -4.14 | -5.50 | 1.45 | 3.21 | 4.97 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 0.39 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.16 | 0.67 | 1.49 | |
Independent | Observed | 118 | 251 | 36 | 67 | 30 | 502 |
Expected | 65.75 | 251.00 | 36.57 | 93.53 | 55.16 | 502.00 | |
O - E | 52.25 | 0.00 | -0.57 | -26.53 | -25.16 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 41.53 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 7.52 | 11.47 | 60.53 | |
Independent, near Rep. | Observed | 24 | 136 | 19 | 45 | 25 | 249 |
Expected | 32.61 | 124.50 | 18.14 | 46.39 | 27.36 | 249.00 | |
O - E | -8.61 | 11.50 | 0.86 | -1.39 | -2.36 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 2.27 | 1.06 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 3.62 | |
Not strong Republican | Observed | 19 | 142 | 30 | 71 | 30 | 292 |
Expected | 38.24 | 146.00 | 21.27 | 54.40 | 32.08 | 292.00 | |
O - E | -19.24 | -4.00 | 8.73 | 16.60 | -2.08 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 9.68 | 0.11 | 3.58 | 5.06 | 0.14 | 18.57 | |
Strong Republican | Observed | 18 | 131 | 15 | 53 | 28 | 245 |
Expected | 32.09 | 122.50 | 17.85 | 45.64 | 26.92 | 245.00 | |
O - E | -14.09 | 8.50 | -2.85 | 7.36 | 1.08 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 6.19 | 0.59 | 0.45 | 1.19 | 0.04 | 8.46 | |
Other Party | Observed | 5 | 31 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 62 |
Expected | 8.12 | 31.00 | 4.52 | 11.55 | 6.81 | 62.00 | |
O - E | -3.12 | 0.00 | -1.52 | 3.45 | 1.19 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 1.20 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 1.03 | 0.21 | 2.95 | |
Total | Observed | 329 | 1256 | 183 | 468 | 276 | 2512 |
Expected | 329.00 | 1256.00 | 183.00 | 468.00 | 276.00 | 2512.00 | |
O - E | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
(O - E)² / E | 61.35 | 2.58 | 6.60 | 15.54 | 20.17 | 106.24 | |
106.24 | chi-square | ||||||
28 | df | ||||||
4.82E-11 | p-value |
=> We can conclude there is a difference in political party support among different stages of education