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In: Statistics and Probability

Political parties want to know what groups of people support them. The General Social Survey (GSS)...

Political parties want to know what groups of people support them. The General Social Survey (GSS) asked its 2014 sample, "Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, Democrat, Independent, or what?" The GSS is essentially an SRS of American adults. Here is a large two-way tale breaking down the responses by the highest degree the subject held:

None High School Junior College Bachelor Graduate
Strong Democrat 53 198 23 81 64
Not strong Democrat 52 204 31 70 49
Independent, near Dem. 40 163 26 66 42
Independent 118 251 36 67 30
Independent, near Rep. 24 136 19 45 25
Not strong Republican 19 142 30 71 30
Strong Republican 18 131 15 53 28
Other Party 5 31 3 15 8

1. Make a 2x5 table by combining the counts in the three rows that mention Democrats, Republicans and ignoring strict independents and supporters of other parties. We might think of this table as comparing all adults who lean Democrat or Republican. How does does support for the two major parties differ among adults with different levels of education?

2. Use the full table to analyze the differences in political party support among levels of education. The sample is so large that the differences are bound to be highly significant. but give the χ2χ2 test statistic and p-value nonetheless. The main challenge is in seeing what the data say. Does the full table yield any insights not found in the compressed table analyzed in part 1?

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Answer:

The democrat numbers for none are obtained by adding Strong democrat, Not stron democrat and Independent near democrat = 53 + 52 + 40 = 145

The Republicans numbers for none are obtained by adding Strong Republicans , Not strong republicans and Independent near republicans= 24 + 19 + 18 = 61.

Similarly the calculations are followed across the table for high school, Junior high etc.

From the table we can see that the support is high for Democrats. It is provided maximum by the students having the education High School.

Chi Squared Table:

NONE HS JH BACHELOR GRADUATE
Strong Democrat Observed   53 198 23 81 64 419
Expected   54.88 209.50 30.52 78.06 46.04 419.00
O - E   -1.88 -11.50 -7.52 2.94 17.96 0.00
(O - E)² / E   0.06 0.63 1.85 0.11 7.01 9.67
Not strong Democrat Observed   52 204 31 70 49 406
Expected   53.17 203.00 29.58 75.64 44.61 406.00
O - E   -1.17 1.00 1.42 -5.64 4.39 0.00
(O - E)² / E   0.03 0.00 0.07 0.42 0.43 0.95
Independent, near Dem. Observed   40 163 26 66 42 337
Expected   44.14 168.50 24.55 62.79 37.03 337.00
O - E   -4.14 -5.50 1.45 3.21 4.97 0.00
(O - E)² / E   0.39 0.18 0.09 0.16 0.67 1.49
Independent Observed   118 251 36 67 30 502
Expected   65.75 251.00 36.57 93.53 55.16 502.00
O - E   52.25 0.00 -0.57 -26.53 -25.16 0.00
(O - E)² / E   41.53 0.00 0.01 7.52 11.47 60.53
Independent, near Rep. Observed   24 136 19 45 25 249
Expected   32.61 124.50 18.14 46.39 27.36 249.00
O - E   -8.61 11.50 0.86 -1.39 -2.36 0.00
(O - E)² / E   2.27 1.06 0.04 0.04 0.20 3.62
Not strong Republican Observed   19 142 30 71 30 292
Expected   38.24 146.00 21.27 54.40 32.08 292.00
O - E   -19.24 -4.00 8.73 16.60 -2.08 0.00
(O - E)² / E   9.68 0.11 3.58 5.06 0.14 18.57
Strong Republican Observed   18 131 15 53 28 245
Expected   32.09 122.50 17.85 45.64 26.92 245.00
O - E   -14.09 8.50 -2.85 7.36 1.08 0.00
(O - E)² / E   6.19 0.59 0.45 1.19 0.04 8.46
Other Party Observed   5 31 3 15 8 62
Expected   8.12 31.00 4.52 11.55 6.81 62.00
O - E   -3.12 0.00 -1.52 3.45 1.19 0.00
(O - E)² / E   1.20 0.00 0.51 1.03 0.21 2.95
Total Observed   329 1256 183 468 276 2512
Expected   329.00 1256.00 183.00 468.00 276.00 2512.00
O - E   0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
(O - E)² / E   61.35 2.58 6.60 15.54 20.17 106.24
106.24 chi-square
28 df
4.82E-11 p-value

=> We can conclude there is a difference in political party support among different stages of education


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