Question

In: Statistics and Probability

Losing a coin. You begin the day carrying 2 nickels and 1 dime in your pocket....

Losing a coin. You begin the day carrying 2 nickels and 1 dime in your pocket. Sadly, your pocket has a hole. Very sadly, at the end of the day, one of the 3 coins has fallen out. Each of the three coins has an equal probability of falling out. In the evening, you reach into your pocket and pull out one of the two remaining coins, each of which has an equal probability of being chosen. The coin you happen to pick from your pocket is a nickel.

Let D be the event you lost the dime; N be the event you lost a nickel; d be the event you pick a dime from your pocket, and n be the event you pick a nickel from your pocket.

Given that you have picked a nickel from your pocket, what is the (conditional) probability that you LOST the DIME through the hold in your pocket. Show the equation (algebraic or numeric) that you use to calculate that result.   

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