Question

In a population of 10,000, there are 5000 nonsmokers, 2500 smokers of one pack or less per day, and 2500 smokers of more than one pack per day. During any month, there is a 6% probability that a nonsmoker will begin smoking a pack or less per day, and a 2% probability that a nonsmoker will begin smoking more than a pack per day. For smokers who smoke a pack or less per day, there is a 10% probability of quitting and a 10% probability of increasing to more than a pack per day. For smokers who smoke more than a pack per day, there is a 7% probability of quitting and a 10% probability of dropping to a pack or less per day. How many people will be in each group in 1 month, in 2 months, and in 1 year? (Round your answers to the nearest whole number.)

(a) in 1 month

nonsmokers	? people
1 pack/day or less	? people
more than 1 pack/day	? people

(b) in 2 months

nonsmokers	? people
1 pack/day or less	? people
more than 1 pack/day	? people

(c) in 1 year

nonsmokers	? people
1 pack/day or less	? people
more than 1 pack/day	? people

Answer 1

Answer:

Given that:

In a population of 10,000 , there are 5000 nonsmokers , 2500 smokers of one pack or less per day, and 2500 smokers of more than one pack per day

a) During this first month:

Number of non - smokers turned to smoking a pack or less per day = 5000 * 6 / 100

= 300 people

Number of non - smokers turned to smoking a pack or more than  per day = 5000 * 2 / 100

= 100 people

Now people in non- smoking group = 5000-300-100

= 4500 people

Number of non - smokers who  smoke a pack or less per day turned to quality smoking :

= 2500*10/100

= 250 people

  Number of non - smokers who  smoke a pack or less per day turned to increasing more than a pack per day = 2500*10/100

= 250 people

Number of people in smoking less than a pack per day = 2500-(250+250)

= 2000 people

Number of smokers who smoke more than a pack per day turned to quality smoking :

= 2500* 7/100

= 175 people

Number of smokers who smoke more than a pack per day turned to smoking are pack or less per day = 2500*10/100

= 250 people

Now ,

number of people in smoking more than a pack per day = 2500-(175+250)

= 2075 people

Now

People (don't smoke)= 4500+250+225

= 4975 people

People (less then a pack per day)=2000+300+250

= 2550 people

People (smoke more than a pack per day)= 2075+100+250

= 2425 people

Similarly for second month and for 1 year by using above calculation.