The
demand curve for
bonds shifts due to changes in
wealth, expected relative returns, risk, and liquidity. Wealth,
returns, and liquidity are positively related to
demand; risk is inversely
related to demand. Wealth sets the
general level of demand. Investors then trade
off risk for returns and liquidity.
- The demand curve for bonds shifts due to changes in wealth,
expected relative returns, risk, and liquidity.
- Wealth, returns, and liquidity are positively related to
demand; risk is inversely related to demand.
- Wealth sets the general level of demand. Investors then trade
off risk for returns and liquidity.
- The supply curve for bonds shifts due to changes in government
budgets, inflation expectations, and general business
conditions.
- Deficits cause governments to issue bonds and hence shift the
bond supply curve right; surpluses have the opposite effect.
- Expected inflation leads businesses to issue bonds because
inflation reduces real borrowing costs, ceteris paribus; decreases
in expected inflation or deflation expectations have the opposite
effect.
- Expectations of future general business conditions, including
tax reductions, regulatory cost reduction, and increased economic
growth (economic expansion or boom), induce businesses to borrow
(issue bonds), while higher taxes, more costly regulations, and
recessions shift the bond supply curve left.
- Theoretically, whether a business expansion leads to higher
interest rates or not depends on the degree of the shift in the
bond supply and demand curves.
- An expansion will cause the bond supply curve to shift right,
which alone will decrease bond prices (increase the interest
rate).
- But expansions also cause the demand for bonds to increase (the
bond demand curve to shift right), which has the effect of
increasing bond prices (and hence lowering bond yields).
- Empirically, the bond supply curve typically shifts much
further than the bond demand curve, so the interest rate usually
rises during expansions and always falls during recessions.
- Shifts in the Demand for
Bonds
- • Wealth—in an expansion with
growing wealth, the
- demand curve for bonds shifts to
the right
- • Expected Returns—higher expected
interest rates in
- the future lower the expected
return for long-term
- bonds, shifting the demand curve
to the left
- • Expected Inflation—an increase
in the expected rate
- of inflations lowers the expected
return for bonds,
- causing the demand curve to shift
to the left
- • Risk—an increase in the
riskiness of bonds causes
- the demand curve to shift to the
left
- • Liquidity—increased liquidity of
bonds results in the
- demand curve shifting
right
- Shifts in the Supply of
Bonds
- • Expected profitability of
investment
- opportunities—in an expansion,
the
- supply curve shifts to the
right
- • Expected inflation—an increase
in
- expected inflation shifts the
supply curve
- for bonds to the right
- • Government budget—increased
budget
- deficits shift the supply curve to
the right
- Shifts in the Demand for
Money
- • Income Effect—a higher level of
income
- causes the demand for money at
each
- interest rate to increase and the
demand
- curve to shift to the
right
- • Price-Level Effect—a rise in the
price
- level causes the demand for money
at
- each interest rate to increase and
the
- demand curve to shift to the
right
- Assume that the supply of money
is
- controlled by the central
bank
- • An increase in the money
supply
- engineered by the Federal
Reserve
- will shift the supply curve for
money to
- the right