Question

In aircraft accident investigation, an Air Detective Tip alluded to the investigative risk of “hindsight bias”. What does this mean and how could it have an effect on discovery of causations?

Answer 1

Handsight bias is the inclination, after an event has happened, to see the event as having been predictable, despite having very little or no objective basis for predicting it. If I explain in simple way with the investigators perspective , after seeing the outcome of the event the investigator may say she/he knew it all along. That means after the event occurred then it is easy to connect the dots and forecast that the event may have been predictable. That biased assessment is known as handsight bias.

By seeing the outcome of the event , the investigator may connect the dots from outcomes to the cause. The series of events may lead investigator to the cause of the event.